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Rain & storms are scattering across the NT Top End, Qld's north, centre & east & NSW's northeast as moisture feeds a trough. Very warm, dry northeasterly winds are affecting WA's west. A front is bringing cool winds & showers to SA, Tas & Vic while a high keeps the remainder dry.
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Today, 12:58AM UTC
Why Queensland has been getting all the rain
Multiple flooding events have occurred in Queensland since the start of 2025, but why? Last month was Australia’s hottest and 4th-wettest March on record. Queensland was especially wet, registering its 3rd wettest March on record. This moisture combined with the very warm temperatures around the country to bring the warmest March minimum temperatures on record for Queensland, averaging 2.66°C above the long-term average. But why was Queensland so wet in March? The state of the Pacific Ocean The Bureau of Meteorology kept the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dial in the neutral phase over the past summer, however the equatorial Pacific Ocean showed signs of La Niña at times. As seen in the image below, cooler than average sea surface temperatures have featured over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, in a region called the Niño3.4. Image: Sea Surface Temperatures across the Pacific Ocean on April 1, 2025. Source: NOAA. The coldest sea surface temperature over the region were seen during January and February, before a surge of more moderate temperatures moves in from the east. The figure below shows the evolution of the Niño3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Index. The index can be seen briefly dropping below -0.8°C around late 2024 and early 2025, around the time the central equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures were the coldest. Image: Niño3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Index over the past 5 years. Conditions across the central Pacific Ocean were enough for the US’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) to declare it a La Niña event in early January. The US’s CPC has a weaker threshold of -0.5°C compared to the -0.8°C threshold used by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in Australia, along with atmospheric response thresholds. This La Niña like pattern has mostly affected Queensland with very wet conditions in the past few months, as seen in the rainfall analysis for March 2025 below. Image: Rainfall deciles across Australia for March 2025. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. The widespread above average rainfall across northern and outback Queensland is similar to that of March 2018, as seen in the image below. The 2017-18 season featured a weak and delayed La Niña event. Image: Rainfall deciles across Australia for March 2018. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Record warm sea surface temperatures and other considerations While the ENSO phases might have been similar in 2017-18 and 2024-25, ocean temperatures closer to Australia have been at record warm levels over the past few months. This led to enhanced moisture in the atmosphere, helping fuel all the heavy rain events across Queensland. Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies around Australia in January. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Some other notable features to impact Queensland this month included Tropical Cyclone Alfred, which brought 275mm in 24 hours to Brisbane, marking the city’s wettest day in half a century. A monsoonal burst and an active Madden-Julian Oscillation over the second half of the month harnessed the available moisture around Queensland bringing intense rainfall to the north, and then over the state’s outback. Outlook for ENSO and winter Even by the US’s definitions of ENSO, the current La Niña event will not last much longer, as seen by the Niño3.4 index returning closer to a true neutral phase in recent weeks. Current consensus across global models favours the neutral phase of the ENSO to remain over the coming winter. However, sea surface temperatures around Australia and the globe are likely to remain very warm, promoting above average rainfall over eastern Australia, as can be seen in the forecast maps below for April and May. Image: Forecast rainfall anomalies for April. Image: Forecast rainfall anomalies for May.
02 Apr 2025, 11:12PM UTC
Massive U.S. heavy rain event could mean historic flooding this week
Days of heavy rain and thunderstorms will hit parts of the Mid-South and Ohio Valley this week, with rainfall amounts exceeding six inches possibly resulting in historic flooding. Two big storm systems are going to move across the U.S. this week and produce all kinds of weather hazards. Some heavy snow across the north, strong winds in the Plains, and areas of severe weather east of the Rockies are all on the docket. But this week’s wild weather might be most remembered for the incredibly heavy rain that is forecast to fall. A big system already moved into the Plains on Tuesday, April 1 before crossing the Midwest on Wednesday, April 2. Showers and thunderstorms formed along this system’s cold front on both days, causing areas of heavy rain and severe weather. This front is going to get stuck from northeast Texas through the Ohio Valley from Thursday, initially causing showers and thunderstorms along that area for both Thursday, April 3 and Friday, April 4. Warm, moist air coming up from the Gulf should aid in producing widespread areas of heavy rainfall in this area as well. On Saturday, April 5, the next big storm system will reinvigorate the front, producing more widespread heavy rain and severe thunderstorms along the same areas stretching from Texas to the Ohio Valley. Rain from this stubborn front may not clear the region until Sunday, April 6. Huge rainfall totals to cause flooding With essentially 4-5 days of nearly continuous rainfall, amounts will stack up very quickly. Model simulations are pointing toward widespread areas of 4-8 inches of rainfall from far northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through Arkansas and southern Missouri up through Ohio, which includes much of Kentucky and western Tennessee. Image: Heavy rain is forecast to occur from the extreme southeastern Plains up through the Ohio Valley. Some areas may see more than eight inches of rain. Source: TropicalTiibits.com Where thunderstorms train - or move over the same areas continuously - those amounts are likely to be higher. The risk of training thunderstorms is much higher along the stalled frontal area, roughly between Texas and Oklahoma. It is hard to put a ceiling on how much rain may fall, but it appears possible that some areas may eclipse a foot of total rainfall over the extended event. The National Weather Service currently has flood watches posted for much of these areas and may expand them as the front starts to set up on Thursday. All of these areas feed the Mississippi River and flooding along it south of St. Louis appears likely, not to mention the Ohio, Cumberland, Tennessee, and Arkansas Rivers and the local tributaries as well. With that much rain, the flooding could be historic. Image: In addition to other extreme hazards across the U.S., areas shaded in green are forecast to see heavy rain and potential flooding. Source: NOAA/NWS There was another period where this same area had tremendous flooding, back in April 2011. That April was most remembered for its severe weather, in which multiple tornado outbreaks occurred, including the Super Outbreak that produced four maximum-rated EF-5 tornadoes late in the month. You can find a NOAA recap here. However, that active weather pattern also produced heavy rainfall in much of the same areas from Arkansas up through the Ohio Valley. Some areas saw more than 300% of their normal April rainfall, or more than ten inches of rain, though that fell over the entire month, not just a five-day period. Major flooding occurred along those rivers and many areas were deemed federal disaster areas. The same may occur with this series of rainfall as well.
02 Apr 2025, 5:52AM UTC
How a West Australian cyclone saturated Queensland
Heavy rain and flood warnings are in the news again today in Queensland – including in Brisbane and the heavily populated southeast corner of the state – due to the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Dianne. Dianne made landfall on WA's Kimberley coastline on Saturday morning. So how is it responsible for soaking parts of Queensland and even northern NSW several days later – when some of those areas are as far as 3000 kilometres from the Kimberley? The answer is that the remnant moisture from TC Dianne was picked up by the subtropical jet stream and rapidly transported towards Queensland, via Central Australia. The 4-hour loop below shows moisture streaming across the country associated with the remnants of the former cyclone on Monday. Image: Combined Australian satellite and radar loop between 1pm and 5pm (AEST) on Monday March 31, 2025. Monday was the day when many outback localities received significant rainfall from this system, including Alice Springs with 50.8mm in the 24 hours to 9am Monday. The rain would have been welcome, as Alice Springs missed out on last week's deluge that soaked large parts of outback and central Qld, as well as parts of outback SA and NSW. Indeed the 50.8mm that Alice Springs received this Monday was more rain in a single day than the town had received over the course of any entire month going back 12 months. By Tuesday, Central Queensland was getting yet another soaking, with 24-hour totals of 100mm at multiple locations, and by Wednesday morning, rain had spread all the way to southeast Qld and northeast NSW, with Brisbane receiving 34.6mm between 9am and 3:30pm (AEST) Wednesday. Image: Combined Australian satellite and radar loop around the middle of the day on Wednesday, April 2, 2025. Most of the moisture from ex-TC Dianne should have completed its trans-continental journey and moved offshore by Thursday, although showers remain likely in many parts of Queensland on Thursday and Friday, as the trough across central and northern parts of the state lingers. Western and interior Queensland should return to much drier conditions from the weekend onwards.