ENSO status: La Niña-like conditions.
IOD status: Neutral.
SAM status: Positive. Trending neutral.

Rainfall outlooks are showing above average rainfall over large parts of northern Australia in March and early April (forecast late monsoon activity). Above average rainfall is expected for the NSW coast through autumn, with wetter conditions also developing over western WA from late autumn. SA, Vic and Tas are expected to be average to slightly below average, with average conditions elsewhere.

Temperature outlooks are showing below average maximum temperatures for large parts of northern Australia, and slightly higher than average over the remainder of the country. Minimum temperatures are forecast to be generally warmer than average overall, but cool closer to average from mid-autumn.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in a La Niña-like pattern. The US declaring a La Niña event has started, but this event has not met the BoM definition. A La Niña typically increases rainfall over northern and eastern Australia, while reducing rainfall over southern coastal Australia and western Tas. A La Niña typically leads to cooler temperatures northern Australia and NSW during summer, while producing higher temperatures for western/southwestern WA, Vic and western Tas.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral phase and does not play a part in Australia's climate during this time of year.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is in a short positive phase. Recent forecasts no particular evidence towards a positive or negative phase in autumn, although the long-wave pattern indicates that cold fronts are a bit more likely for Australia's longitudes over the next few months. During summer and early autumn, a positive SAM increases rainfall over most of eastern Australia, and decreases rainfall for SA, Vic and western Tas. During summer and early autumn, a positive SAM decreases temperatures over NSW and Qld, and increases temperatures over Tas and southern Vic. Generally, there are also decreased temperature swings across the southern states, increasing the frequency of heatwaves. Positive SAM can also increase the chance of early season frost in SA, Vic and Tas.