Windermere

Hunter for Friday. Patchy fog in the early morning. Sunny day. Light winds.

Windermere Weather

A sweltering inland air mass will filter across southeastern Australia on Sunday, bringing scorching autumn heat.<span data-ccp-props="{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:0,&quot;335559737&quot;:0,&quot;335559738&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:279}">&nbsp;
This heat will be drawn from the Australian interior by a broad low pressure trough and cold front crossing the country&rsquo;s southeast, leading to increasingly hot temperatures into the weekend. The hottest temperatures are expected on Saturday over the far southwest of NSW, where the mercury will hit the low 40s, with heatwave conditions <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/scorching-autumn-weekend-in-four-capital-cities/1890443">extending into South Australia and Victoria</a> as well.&nbsp;
<img src="https://news-images.weatherzone.com.au/HeatwaveThuSatWZ.png" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />Image: Low-Intensity to Severe Heatwave conditions forecast across South Australia, northern Victoria and much of NSW between Thursday and Saturday.&nbsp;
As this intense heat edges east into the more densely populated parts of eastern NSW on Sunday, energy demand should soar across the state. Hot and relatively dry northwesterly winds should prevent cooling seabreezes across much of the Sydney Basin, as well as coastal regions south from the Hunter down to the South Coast.<span data-ccp-props="{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:0,&quot;335559737&quot;:0,&quot;335559738&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:279}">&nbsp;
This subduing of the seabreeze on Sunday afternoon will allow temperatures to rise to the mid to high 30s, possibly reaching the low 40s in western Sydney. The image below shows hot northwesterly winds continuing into the late afternoon on Sunday. <span data-ccp-props="{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:0,&quot;335559737&quot;:0,&quot;335559738&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:279}">&nbsp;
<img src="https://news-images.weatherzone.com.au/SunNWTempWZ.png" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />Image: Forecast temperatures and winds at 5pm AEDT on Sunday, March 16, showing hot northwesterly winds across the Greater Sydney region.<span data-ccp-props="{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:0,&quot;335559737&quot;:0,&quot;335559738&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:279}">&nbsp;
This surge of heat on Sunday comes after very warm days on Friday and Saturday, forecast to reach the low to mid 30s. Seabreezes will feature both days, helping bring some daytime cooling relief, however the added humidity will make it feel 2 to 4&deg;C warmer than the actual temperature. <span data-ccp-props="{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:0,&quot;335559737&quot;:0,&quot;335559738&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:279}">&nbsp;
With these muggy daytime conditions, night time relief will become increasingly difficult as the humidity limits overnight cooling. Night time temperatures in the low to mid 20s will make recovery from this heat increasingly difficult, with severe heatwave conditions extending into Sunday for eastern NSW.<span data-ccp-props="{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:0,&quot;335559737&quot;:0,&quot;335559738&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:279}">&nbsp;
<img src="https://news-images.weatherzone.com.au/HeatwaveFriSunWZ.png" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />Image: Severe Heatwave conditions forecast to spread over southeast NSW into Sunday.<span data-ccp-props="{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:0,&quot;335559737&quot;:0,&quot;335559738&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:279}">&nbsp;
Unfortunately, much of Sunday night will remain very warm in the high 20s until about midnight for Sydney.
Relief is in sight on Monday, as a vigorous cold front sends a much needed cooling southerly change up the South Coast on Sunday evening, reaching Sydney in the early hours of Monday, and crossing the rest of eastern NSW during the remainder of Monday.<span data-ccp-props="{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:0,&quot;335559737&quot;:0,&quot;335559738&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:279}">&nbsp;
<img src="https://news-images.weatherzone.com.au/SunCoolChangeNSWWZ.png" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />Image: Forecast temperatures and winds at 11pm AEDT on Sunday, March 16, showing heat across northern and central NSW, with the surge of colder southerly winds moving over southern NSW.<span data-ccp-props="{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:1,&quot;335551620&quot;:1,&quot;335559685&quot;:0,&quot;335559737&quot;:0,&quot;335559738&quot;:0,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:279}">&nbsp;
The southerly change will <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/temperatures-to-plummet-in-autumn-cold-snap/1890445">cause temperatures to drop</a> into Monday with a forecast maximum in the mid 20s across the Sydney basin early next week.


A sweltering inland air mass will filter across southeastern Australia on Sunday, bringing scorching autumn heat. 


This heat will be drawn from the Australian interior by a broad low pressure trough and cold front crossing the country’s southeast, leading to increasingly hot temperatures into the weekend. The hottest temperatures are expected on Saturday over the far southwest of NSW, where the mercury will hit the low 40s, with heatwave conditions extending into South Australia and Victoria as well. 


Image: Low-Intensity to Severe Heatwave conditions forecast across South Australia, northern Victoria and much of NSW between Thursday and Saturday. 


As this intense heat edges east into the more densely populated parts of eastern NSW on Sunday, energy demand should soar across the state. Hot and relatively dry northwesterly winds should prevent cooling seabreezes across much of the Sydney Basin, as well as coastal regions south from the Hunter down to the South Coast. 


This subduing of the seabreeze on Sunday afternoon will allow temperatures to rise to the mid to high 30s, possibly reaching the low 40s in western Sydney. The image below shows hot northwesterly winds continuing into the late afternoon on Sunday.  


Image: Forecast temperatures and winds at 5pm AEDT on Sunday, March 16, showing hot northwesterly winds across the Greater Sydney region. 


This surge of heat on Sunday comes after very warm days on Friday and Saturday, forecast to reach the low to mid 30s. Seabreezes will feature both days, helping bring some daytime cooling relief, however the added humidity will make it feel 2 to 4°C warmer than the actual temperature.  


With these muggy daytime conditions, night time relief will become increasingly difficult as the humidity limits overnight cooling. Night time temperatures in the low to mid 20s will make recovery from this heat increasingly difficult, with severe heatwave conditions extending into Sunday for eastern NSW. 


Image: Severe Heatwave conditions forecast to spread over southeast NSW into Sunday. 


Unfortunately, much of Sunday night will remain very warm in the high 20s until about midnight for Sydney.


Relief is in sight on Monday, as a vigorous cold front sends a much needed cooling southerly change up the South Coast on Sunday evening, reaching Sydney in the early hours of Monday, and crossing the rest of eastern NSW during the remainder of Monday. 


Image: Forecast temperatures and winds at 11pm AEDT on Sunday, March 16, showing heat across northern and central NSW, with the surge of colder southerly winds moving over southern NSW. 


The southerly change will cause temperatures to drop into Monday with a forecast maximum in the mid 20s across the Sydney basin early next week.


A sweltering inland air mass will filter across southeastern Australia on Sunday, bringing scorching autumn heat.

Intense burst of autumn heat to scorch NSW, Victoria and SA

The Australian region has set new sea surface temperature records on each of the past five months, with the oceans around Australia expected to stay abnormally warm throughout autumn.
Rising ocean temperatures are one of the most obvious impacts of climate change and the last five months have been remarkably warm in the waters around Australia.
The map below shows the sea surface temperature anomalies around Australia in January this year. The red shading shows areas that were warmer than average for January and the darker red off the country&rsquo;s northwest coast show where sea surface temperatures were more than 3&deg;C above the long-term (1991-2020) average.
<img src="https://news-images.weatherzone.com.au/twc/sst-monthly_gamssa.anom.australia.20250101.hr.png" alt="" width="1085" height="747" />
Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies in January 2025. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies in the Australian region have been more than 0.8&deg;C above the 1961-90 average since the beginning of 2023. The anomaly in summer 2024-25 was +1.01&deg;C, easily beating the previous summer record of +0.89&deg;C from 2023-24.
<img src="https://news-images.weatherzone.com.au/twc/aus_summer_sst.png" alt="" width="640" height="480" />
Image: Summer sea surface temperature anomalies in the Australian region between 1900 and 2025. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
Warmer seas near Australia enhance evaporation and add more moisture into the atmosphere. Unsurprisingly, dew point temperatures were above average for most near-coastal regions of Australian in summer 2024-25.
<img src="https://news-images.weatherzone.com.au/twc/summer_dewpoint_anom.png" alt="" width="817" height="826" />
Image: Dew point temperature anomalies in summer 2024-25. Source: ClimateReanalyzer.org
Higher dew point temperatures make it feel warmer because the extra atmospheric moisture makes it harder for your body to lose heat through the evaporation of sweat. So, if you live near the Australian coastline and thought last summer felt muggier than usual, you weren&rsquo;t imagining it.
Looking ahead, computer models predict that sea surface temperatures will remain higher than average around Australia throughout spring.
<img src="https://news-images.weatherzone.com.au/twc/sst_outlook_may2025.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />
Image: Sea surface temperature outlook for May 2025, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model.
Despite the cooling influence of a La Ni&ntilde;a-like pattern in the Pacific Ocean, global sea surface temperatures have also been running at their second highest level on record in the opening months of 2025. The only year that had a warmer start than this year based on global sea surface temperatures was 2024.


The Australian region has set new sea surface temperature records on each of the past five months, with the oceans around Australia expected to stay abnormally warm throughout autumn.


Rising ocean temperatures are one of the most obvious impacts of climate change and the last five months have been remarkably warm in the waters around Australia.


The map below shows the sea surface temperature anomalies around Australia in January this year. The red shading shows areas that were warmer than average for January and the darker red off the country’s northwest coast show where sea surface temperatures were more than 3°C above the long-term (1991-2020) average.





Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies in January 2025. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.


Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies in the Australian region have been more than 0.8°C above the 1961-90 average since the beginning of 2023. The anomaly in summer 2024-25 was +1.01°C, easily beating the previous summer record of +0.89°C from 2023-24.





Image: Summer sea surface temperature anomalies in the Australian region between 1900 and 2025. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.


Warmer seas near Australia enhance evaporation and add more moisture into the atmosphere. Unsurprisingly, dew point temperatures were above average for most near-coastal regions of Australian in summer 2024-25.





Image: Dew point temperature anomalies in summer 2024-25. Source: ClimateReanalyzer.org


Higher dew point temperatures make it feel warmer because the extra atmospheric moisture makes it harder for your body to lose heat through the evaporation of sweat. So, if you live near the Australian coastline and thought last summer felt muggier than usual, you weren’t imagining it.


Looking ahead, computer models predict that sea surface temperatures will remain higher than average around Australia throughout spring.





Image: Sea surface temperature outlook for May 2025, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model.


Despite the cooling influence of a La Niña-like pattern in the Pacific Ocean, global sea surface temperatures have also been running at their second highest level on record in the opening months of 2025. The only year that had a warmer start than this year based on global sea surface temperatures was 2024.


The Australian region has set new sea surface temperature records on each of the past five months, with the oceans expected to stay abnormally warm in autumn.

Australia registers 5 months of record-breaking ocean temperatures

The coming <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/scorching-autumn-weekend-in-four-capital-cities/1890443">weekend heat</a> will seem like a distant memory by early next week across Tasmania and the southeast mainland, as a cold front ushers in autumn&rsquo;s first burst of chilly weather.
<img src="https://news-images.weatherzone.com.au/MintempsMar17VERSION2.png.jpg" alt="" width="1041" height="520" />
Image: Predicted minimum temperature contrasts between Sunday and Monday across the southeast mainland.
<h3>Tasmania</h3>
Our southernmost state will be hardest hit, with <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/tas/lower-derwent/hobart">Hobart</a> maximums dropping from 28&deg;C on Saturday ahead of the front to 17&deg;C by Monday. Snow showers are likely above 1000m across the state as the front moves through on Sunday, including on 1271m kunanyi/Mt Wellington above Hobart.
<h3>Victoria</h3>
<a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/melbourne/melbourne">Melbourne</a> will also feel a strong chill. After maximums in the mid-to-high thirties across the city on Saturday and a showery Sunday for the <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/scorching-autumn-weekend-in-four-capital-cities/1890443">F1 Australian Grand Prix</a>, Monday&rsquo;s high will be only 17&deg;C (the coldest day of 2025 to date) in the drier but much cooler air in the wake of the front.
The effects will be felt right across Victoria, with <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/mallee/mildura">Mildura</a> heading for 41&deg;C on Saturday, then just 22&deg;C on Monday, while ski resorts like <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/north-east/hotham-heights">Mt Hotham</a> in the Vic high country could see a brief snowflake or two on Monday morning for the second time this year, after <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/summer-snow-and-nearrecord-lows/1890372">snow briefly fell in February</a>.
<h3>South Australia</h3>
<a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/sa/adelaide/adelaide">Adelaide</a> should reach just 21&deg;C on Monday after a scorching autumn day of 38&deg;C on Saturday, but sadly for <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/the-island-that-rain-forgot/1890402">rain-starved South Australians</a>, the cool change will deliver only moderate falls up to 5mm, with the chance of slightly more in the far southeast at places like Mount Gambier.
<h3>Canberra</h3>
Maximums on Monday and Tuesday will be around 12-14 degrees lower than Saturday&rsquo;s expected top of 35&deg;C, but the effects of the cold snap in the nation's capital will be most strongly felt early in the morning, will overnight lows dropping to single digits, while the <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/nsw/snowy-mountains/perisher-valley">NSW ski resorts</a> should see subzero temps with frost on Tuesday morning.
<h3>Sydney</h3>
Sunday will be <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/nsw/sydney/sydney">Sydney&rsquo;s</a> hottest day ahead of the front with a maximum of 35&deg;C expected in the city, while the outer western suburbs could come close to 40&deg;C. By Tuesday, max temps should be in the range of 21-24 degrees across the city.
<img src="https://news-images.weatherzone.com.au/SnoppyMar16.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="720" />
Image: Synoptic chart for Sunday, March 16.
As ever with these types of systems, the humble synoptic chart does as good a job as the most sophisticated weather graphics in illustrating the influx of cooler air from southern latitudes.
The blue shading on the chart above also illustrates the minimal moisture with this system, with only Tasmania and far southern Vic expecting significant falls of 10mm or more. That&rsquo;s fairly typical for an early autumn cold front which doesn&rsquo;t peak far enough north to deliver widespread heavy rain and/or snowfalls on the mountains.
But despite the lack of significant moisture across a wide area, the chill in the air early next week will be a stark difference from the weekend weather and a reminder that the seasons are changing as we approach next week&rsquo;s equinox.


The coming weekend heat will seem like a distant memory by early next week across Tasmania and the southeast mainland, as a cold front ushers in autumn’s first burst of chilly weather.





Image: Predicted minimum temperature contrasts between Sunday and Monday across the southeast mainland.


Tasmania


Our southernmost state will be hardest hit, with Hobart maximums dropping from 28°C on Saturday ahead of the front to 17°C by Monday. Snow showers are likely above 1000m across the state as the front moves through on Sunday, including on 1271m kunanyi/Mt Wellington above Hobart.


Victoria


Melbourne will also feel a strong chill. After maximums in the mid-to-high thirties across the city on Saturday and a showery Sunday for the F1 Australian Grand Prix, Monday’s high will be only 17°C (the coldest day of 2025 to date) in the drier but much cooler air in the wake of the front.


The effects will be felt right across Victoria, with Mildura heading for 41°C on Saturday, then just 22°C on Monday, while ski resorts like Mt Hotham in the Vic high country could see a brief snowflake or two on Monday morning for the second time this year, after snow briefly fell in February.


South Australia


Adelaide should reach just 21°C on Monday after a scorching autumn day of 38°C on Saturday, but sadly for rain-starved South Australians, the cool change will deliver only moderate falls up to 5mm, with the chance of slightly more in the far southeast at places like Mount Gambier.


Canberra


Maximums on Monday and Tuesday will be around 12-14 degrees lower than Saturday’s expected top of 35°C, but the effects of the cold snap in the nation's capital will be most strongly felt early in the morning, will overnight lows dropping to single digits, while the NSW ski resorts should see subzero temps with frost on Tuesday morning.


Sydney


Sunday will be Sydney’s hottest day ahead of the front with a maximum of 35°C expected in the city, while the outer western suburbs could come close to 40°C. By Tuesday, max temps should be in the range of 21-24 degrees across the city.





Image: Synoptic chart for Sunday, March 16.


As ever with these types of systems, the humble synoptic chart does as good a job as the most sophisticated weather graphics in illustrating the influx of cooler air from southern latitudes.


The blue shading on the chart above also illustrates the minimal moisture with this system, with only Tasmania and far southern Vic expecting significant falls of 10mm or more. That’s fairly typical for an early autumn cold front which doesn’t peak far enough north to deliver widespread heavy rain and/or snowfalls on the mountains.


But despite the lack of significant moisture across a wide area, the chill in the air early next week will be a stark difference from the weekend weather and a reminder that the seasons are changing as we approach next week’s equinox.


An early autumn cold front will bring snow in Tasmania and frosty mornings in elevated parts of southeastern Australia.

Temperatures to plummet in autumn cold snap

Another big spring storm system will cause strong winds, heavy snow, potential blizzard conditions, freezing rain, and severe storms across the US this week.
<h2>Bomb cyclone on the way</h2>
A low pressure system is expected to rapidly intensify as it moves from the Rockies into the Central Plains on Friday, March 14. This low may intensify fast enough to be classified as a &lsquo;bomb cyclone&rsquo;, which refers to a low pressure system where the central pressure drops by 24 millibars (mb) over a 24-hour period at 60 degrees latitude, or 14 mb over a 24-hour period at 30 degrees latitude.
Bomb cyclones are dangerous systems that typically produce powerful winds and heavy precipitation. With this week&rsquo;s low being positioned closer to 40 degrees latitude in northeast Colorado on Friday, a drop of approximately 18 mb would suffice for it to be classed as a bomb cyclone. Recent runs of the European ECMWF and American GFS models are somewhere in the range of a 20-25 mb drop in 24 hours, which is more than enough to meet the definition.
<img src="https://news-images.weatherzone.com.au/wz/ecmwf_mslp_wind_us_fh93-93.gif" alt="" width="1024" height="696" />
Image: Forecast wind speed and mean sea level pressure at 21 UTC on Friday, March 14. Strong winds are forecast to develop over the Plains, with wind gusts exceeding the labeled sustained winds shown here. Source: tropicaltidbits.com
The low-pressure center is forecast to move from the Central Plains northeast through the Upper Midwest for Saturday, March 15, then into Hudson Bay on Sunday, March 16. A cold front associated with the low will also sweep across the country over the weekend, moving to the East Coast on Sunday night before exiting offshore early Monday, March 17.
<h2>Get ready for wind, rain, ice and snow</h2>
Before getting into the Plains, the system will have already brought widespread precipitation and strong winds to the Western US, including areas of heavy mountain snow, on Wednesday, March 12, and Thursday, March 13. But once in the Plains, the system will make for much more hazardous conditions.
Bomb cyclones are known to cause many weather issues, but the main concern is usually high winds. In fact, when also including the downsloping off the Rockies and into the Southern Plains, wind gusts may peak over 70 mph across Texas on Friday.
Strong winds will continue through the weekend, following the system east across the country. Though winds may only be in the 40-50 mph range for those across the Midwest, it will likely coincide with potential for heavy snow and freezing rain across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota.
Enough cold air will be ingested into the low pressure system to produce bands and clusters of heavy snow on the northwest side of the low&rsquo;s track, but will probably wait until Friday night to materialize. Starting off as rain and transitioning to snow could make for some period of freezing rain in these areas as well. With the winds howling around, extra damage may occur from the ice and wet snow. Blizzard conditions may also develop from Saturday.
<img src="https://news-images.weatherzone.com.au/wz/ECMWF_day7total_00z_snow.png" alt="" width="1243" height="722" />
Image: Snowfall forecast from the ECMWF model shows a likelihood of heavy snow in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota Source: DTN
<h2>Severe weather in the South</h2>
To the south, several more rounds of severe weather are currently being forecast by the Storm Prediction Center. Areas near the Mississippi River are the focus on Friday, with that shifting to the eastern Midwest down to the Gulf of Mexico for Saturday, and along the East Coast for Sunday. All hazards will be possible, but strong winds and tornadoes will be the main threats. Those outlooks will continue to be updated and can be found here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/.
To go along with the threat of thunderstorms, heavy rain will be possible across the Gulf Coast and Mid-South, areas that have dealt with flooding recently and could have issues with more flooding.


Another big spring storm system will cause strong winds, heavy snow, potential blizzard conditions, freezing rain, and severe storms across the US this week.


Bomb cyclone on the way


A low pressure system is expected to rapidly intensify as it moves from the Rockies into the Central Plains on Friday, March 14. This low may intensify fast enough to be classified as a ‘bomb cyclone’, which refers to a low pressure system where the central pressure drops by 24 millibars (mb) over a 24-hour period at 60 degrees latitude, or 14 mb over a 24-hour period at 30 degrees latitude.


Bomb cyclones are dangerous systems that typically produce powerful winds and heavy precipitation. With this week’s low being positioned closer to 40 degrees latitude in northeast Colorado on Friday, a drop of approximately 18 mb would suffice for it to be classed as a bomb cyclone. Recent runs of the European ECMWF and American GFS models are somewhere in the range of a 20-25 mb drop in 24 hours, which is more than enough to meet the definition.





Image: Forecast wind speed and mean sea level pressure at 21 UTC on Friday, March 14. Strong winds are forecast to develop over the Plains, with wind gusts exceeding the labeled sustained winds shown here. Source: tropicaltidbits.com


The low-pressure center is forecast to move from the Central Plains northeast through the Upper Midwest for Saturday, March 15, then into Hudson Bay on Sunday, March 16. A cold front associated with the low will also sweep across the country over the weekend, moving to the East Coast on Sunday night before exiting offshore early Monday, March 17.


Get ready for wind, rain, ice and snow


Before getting into the Plains, the system will have already brought widespread precipitation and strong winds to the Western US, including areas of heavy mountain snow, on Wednesday, March 12, and Thursday, March 13. But once in the Plains, the system will make for much more hazardous conditions.


Bomb cyclones are known to cause many weather issues, but the main concern is usually high winds. In fact, when also including the downsloping off the Rockies and into the Southern Plains, wind gusts may peak over 70 mph across Texas on Friday.


Strong winds will continue through the weekend, following the system east across the country. Though winds may only be in the 40-50 mph range for those across the Midwest, it will likely coincide with potential for heavy snow and freezing rain across the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota.


Enough cold air will be ingested into the low pressure system to produce bands and clusters of heavy snow on the northwest side of the low’s track, but will probably wait until Friday night to materialize. Starting off as rain and transitioning to snow could make for some period of freezing rain in these areas as well. With the winds howling around, extra damage may occur from the ice and wet snow. Blizzard conditions may also develop from Saturday.





Image: Snowfall forecast from the ECMWF model shows a likelihood of heavy snow in the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota Source: DTN


Severe weather in the South


To the south, several more rounds of severe weather are currently being forecast by the Storm Prediction Center. Areas near the Mississippi River are the focus on Friday, with that shifting to the eastern Midwest down to the Gulf of Mexico for Saturday, and along the East Coast for Sunday. All hazards will be possible, but strong winds and tornadoes will be the main threats. Those outlooks will continue to be updated and can be found here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/.


To go along with the threat of thunderstorms, heavy rain will be possible across the Gulf Coast and Mid-South, areas that have dealt with flooding recently and could have issues with more flooding.


Another big spring storm system will cause strong winds, heavy snow, potential blizzard conditions, freezing rain, and severe storms across the US this week.

‘Bomb cyclone’ to spread severe weather through US later this week

Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Canberra will all reach the mid-thirties this weekend, with temperatures nudging 40&deg;C in the suburbs of Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide.
<ul>
<li>The hot weather will reach Adelaide first, where tops of 37&deg;C and 38&deg;C are expected on Friday and Saturday, while Elizabeth in the city's outer north should reach 40&deg;C.</li>
<li>After a brief burst of midweek heat in Melbourne this Wednesday, temps will again soar on Saturday, with a top of 37&deg;C predicted in the city, while several suburbs including Tullamarine can expect 39&deg;C.</li>
<li>While the heat will dissipate in Adelaide and Melbourne by Sunday, both weekend days will be hot in Canberra, with maximums of 35&deg;C and 34&deg;C on Saturday and Sunday respectively.</li>
<li>After a soggy start to this week, Sydney will dry out and warm up over the next few days, with heat peaking on Sunday with a max of 35&deg;C in the city and temps reaching 38&deg;C in the outer west.</li>
</ul>
The heat across the southeast will be caused by warm, dry northwesterly winds ahead of a much cooler southwesterly change expected early next week. So the autumn heat shouldn't be too uncomfortable in terms of humidity, although major weekend sport could still be affected.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560">
Stay tuned... ???? There's more to come from the Piastri and McLaren partnership! ???? ???? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/F1?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#F1</a> <a href="https://t.co/kTuXAcEl71">pic.twitter.com/kTuXAcEl71</a>
&mdash; Formula 1 (@F1) <a href="https://twitter.com/F1/status/1899576064013201632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 11, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<h3>The Australian Grand Prix</h3>
The main race of the big Formula One event in <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/melbourne/melbourne">Melbourne</a> starts at 3pm on Sunday, which is more or less when the southwesterly change is expected with rain and cooler temperatures. It&rsquo;s Melbourne, so dressing for four seasons is all part of a day out, but this Sunday will remind everybody why.&nbsp;
As for the key Saturday <a href="https://www.grandprix.com.au/schedule?categories=&amp;day=2025-03-15">qualifying</a> at 4pm, that takes place when temperatures will be close to the hottest of the weekend.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560">
Our first GMHBA Stadium game of the 2025 AFL season is just around the corner ???? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeAreGeelong?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeAreGeelong</a> <a href="https://t.co/GngxXeow8s">pic.twitter.com/GngxXeow8s</a>
&mdash; Geelong Cats (@GeelongCats) <a href="https://twitter.com/GeelongCats/status/1898856328820625859?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 9, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<h3>AFL</h3>
The main match affected by this weekend&rsquo;s hot weather will be the <a href="https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/6970">Geelong vs Fremantle</a> clash in Geelong starting at 1:20pm on Saturday.
Geelong could reach as high as 36&deg;C on Saturday, although sea breezes may knock a degree or two off that. That&rsquo;s what fans and players will be hoping for, as the <a href="https://www.afl.com.au/news/1277057/afl-monitoring-conditions-as-victoria-braces-for-scorching-saturday">AFL&rsquo;s heat policy</a> allows it to delay or even postpone a match when temperatures are 36&deg;C or higher.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560">
Weekend heat expected across south east Australia, before an abrupt cool change. <a href="https://t.co/ixS2FgiD50">pic.twitter.com/ixS2FgiD50</a>
&mdash; Andrew Miskelly (@andrewmiskelly) <a href="https://twitter.com/andrewmiskelly/status/1899593917840204187?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 11, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>
<h3>NRL</h3>
The main NRL match to watch from a heat perspective will be the <a href="https://www.nrl.com/draw/nrl-premiership/2025/round-2/eels-v-wests-tigers/">Parramatta Eels vs the Wests Tigers</a>&nbsp;encounter in Parramatta on Sunday. Parramatta's maximum of 37&deg;C is expected to occur around kickoff at 4:05pm. Like the AFL&rsquo;s Geelong game on Saturday, this match will likely feature additional drinks breaks.&nbsp;


Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide and Canberra will all reach the mid-thirties this weekend, with temperatures nudging 40°C in the suburbs of Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide.




The hot weather will reach Adelaide first, where tops of 37°C and 38°C are expected on Friday and Saturday, while Elizabeth in the city's outer north should reach 40°C.


After a brief burst of midweek heat in Melbourne this Wednesday, temps will again soar on Saturday, with a top of 37°C predicted in the city, while several suburbs including Tullamarine can expect 39°C.


While the heat will dissipate in Adelaide and Melbourne by Sunday, both weekend days will be hot in Canberra, with maximums of 35°C and 34°C on Saturday and Sunday respectively.


After a soggy start to this week, Sydney will dry out and warm up over the next few days, with heat peaking on Sunday with a max of 35°C in the city and temps reaching 38°C in the outer west.




The heat across the southeast will be caused by warm, dry northwesterly winds ahead of a much cooler southwesterly change expected early next week. So the autumn heat shouldn't be too uncomfortable in terms of humidity, although major weekend sport could still be affected.




Stay tuned... ????

There's more to come from the Piastri and McLaren partnership! ???? ???? #F1 pic.twitter.com/kTuXAcEl71

— Formula 1 (@F1) March 11, 2025

 

The Australian Grand Prix


The main race of the big Formula One event in Melbourne starts at 3pm on Sunday, which is more or less when the southwesterly change is expected with rain and cooler temperatures. It’s Melbourne, so dressing for four seasons is all part of a day out, but this Sunday will remind everybody why. 


As for the key Saturday qualifying at 4pm, that takes place when temperatures will be close to the hottest of the weekend.




Our first GMHBA Stadium game of the 2025 AFL season is just around the corner ???? #WeAreGeelong pic.twitter.com/GngxXeow8s

— Geelong Cats (@GeelongCats) March 9, 2025

 

AFL


The main match affected by this weekend’s hot weather will be the Geelong vs Fremantle clash in Geelong starting at 1:20pm on Saturday.


Geelong could reach as high as 36°C on Saturday, although sea breezes may knock a degree or two off that. That’s what fans and players will be hoping for, as the AFL’s heat policy allows it to delay or even postpone a match when temperatures are 36°C or higher.




Weekend heat expected across south east Australia, before an abrupt cool change. pic.twitter.com/ixS2FgiD50

— Andrew Miskelly (@andrewmiskelly) March 11, 2025

 

NRL


The main NRL match to watch from a heat perspective will be the Parramatta Eels vs the Wests Tigers encounter in Parramatta on Sunday. Parramatta's maximum of 37°C is expected to occur around kickoff at 4:05pm. Like the AFL’s Geelong game on Saturday, this match will likely feature additional drinks breaks. 


Major sporting events including the Australian F1 Grand Prix, AFL and NRL could all be impacted by extreme heat this weekend in eastern Australia.

Scorching autumn weekend in four capital cities

A late-season surge of tropical moisture will cause an increase in rain and thunderstorms over northern Australia in mid-to-late March, along with an elevated risk of tropical cyclone activity near Australia.
Forecast models predict that an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will pass to the north of Australia during mid-to-late March. When the MJO is active near Australia, it typically causes an increase in clouds, rain and thunderstorms in the tropics.
Rain and thunderstorms are expected to become more active over parts of northern Australia from this weekend into next week. This increased tropical moisture should also contribute to periods of wet and stormy weather over the southern half of Australia in the coming fortnight too.
The map below shows the forecast accumulated rain over the next seven days from the ECMWF model, with wet weather likely to affect part of every state and territory.
&nbsp;<img src="https://news-images.weatherzone.com.au/twc/aus_rain_20250311.png" alt="" width="1920" height="1080" />
Image: Forecast accumulated rain in the seven days ending at 11pm AEDT on Monday, March 17, 2025.
The presence of the MJO will also boost the likelihood of tropical cyclone activity near northern Australia in the coming fortnight. Some forecast models are already hinting at the potential for a tropical cyclone over the Indian Ocean to the northwest of Australia late next week. It&rsquo;s too early to know whether this system will form, but meteorologists will be keeping a close eye on the Australian tropics in the coming weeks.


A late-season surge of tropical moisture will cause an increase in rain and thunderstorms over northern Australia in mid-to-late March, along with an elevated risk of tropical cyclone activity near Australia.


Forecast models predict that an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will pass to the north of Australia during mid-to-late March. When the MJO is active near Australia, it typically causes an increase in clouds, rain and thunderstorms in the tropics.


Rain and thunderstorms are expected to become more active over parts of northern Australia from this weekend into next week. This increased tropical moisture should also contribute to periods of wet and stormy weather over the southern half of Australia in the coming fortnight too.


The map below shows the forecast accumulated rain over the next seven days from the ECMWF model, with wet weather likely to affect part of every state and territory.


 


Image: Forecast accumulated rain in the seven days ending at 11pm AEDT on Monday, March 17, 2025.


The presence of the MJO will also boost the likelihood of tropical cyclone activity near northern Australia in the coming fortnight. Some forecast models are already hinting at the potential for a tropical cyclone over the Indian Ocean to the northwest of Australia late next week. It’s too early to know whether this system will form, but meteorologists will be keeping a close eye on the Australian tropics in the coming weeks.


A late-season surge of tropical moisture will cause an increase in rain and thunderstorms over northern Australia in mid-to-late March.

Rain and storms to increase over northern Australia

A trough crossing southern SA has sparked as many as 40 bushfires due to a combination of dry lightning and parched countryside experiencing <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/adelaide-facing-driest-summer-in-33-years/1890381">ongoing severe rainfall deficiencies</a>, with fires also sparked in Victoria.
The dry lightning outbreak started on Monday evening and has continued through to the middle of Tuesday before progressing eastwards into Victoria, with more than 400,000 lightning strikes&nbsp;recorded within 500km of Mount Gambier in southeastern SA&nbsp;between Monday morning and Tuesday lunchtime.&nbsp;
While a few SA locations were lucky enough to see falls of 10mm or more (<a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/station/SITE/26091/daily-summaries">including Coonawarra with 24.4mm</a>), most locations saw barely a drop &ndash; and certainly not enough to negate the effects of a lighting strike.&nbsp;
A SA Country Fire Service spokesperson said that nearly all of the service's 68 brigades and trucks in the state's southeast have been actively responding to calls throughout the night and into the early morning.
<img src="https://news-images.weatherzone.com.au/SAFiresMar11.jpg" alt="" width="994" height="733" />
Image: Fire incidents in SA at 1:30pm on Tuesday, Mar 11, 2025. Source: <a href="https://apps.geohub.sa.gov.au/CFSMap/index.html">SA Country Fire Service</a>.
You can see how the lightning outbreak developed overnight on the combined radar and lightning loop below, where pink indicates areas of lightning.&nbsp;
<img src="https://news-images.weatherzone.com.au/SAradarloopMar10.gif" alt="" width="540" height="540" />
Image: Six-hour radar loop showing rain and lightning approaching and then crossing SE South Australia and SW Victoria from 4pm to 10pm on Monday. March 10.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/the-island-that-rain-forgot/1890402">READ MORE: KANGAROO ISLAND, THE ISLAND THAT RAIN FORGOT</a>
Many parts of southern SA were also without power overnight due to thunderstorm activity.
<img src="https://news-images.weatherzone.com.au/lightning_strikes_SA_20250311.png" alt="" width="1592" height="1196" />
Image: Map of lightning strikes in SA and VIC on Monday, Mar 10 and the first half of Tuesday, Mar 11, 2025.
For firefighters currently tackling blazes in South Australia, the weather outlook is not positive heading into the second of the working week.
After a Wednesday and Thursday with max temps in the high 20s or low 30s across much of southeastern SA, maximums will rise sharply to the mid-to-high 30s with highs of 37&deg;C and 38&deg;C expected in <a href="https://www.weatherzone.com.au/sa/adelaide/adelaide">Adelaide</a> on Friday and Saturday respectively, as northerly winds strengthen.
Please check the latest fire info at the <a href="https://apps.geohub.sa.gov.au/CFSMap/index.html">South Australian Country Fire Service</a> or the <a href="https://emergency.vic.gov.au/respond/?=&amp;bbox=141.58836364746094%2C-38.195561197955655%2C142.1788787841797%2C-37.988586715533636&amp;tm=1741663831632">Emergency Vic Incidents and Warnings</a> page.


A trough crossing southern SA has sparked as many as 40 bushfires due to a combination of dry lightning and parched countryside experiencing ongoing severe rainfall deficiencies, with fires also sparked in Victoria.


The dry lightning outbreak started on Monday evening and has continued through to the middle of Tuesday before progressing eastwards into Victoria, with more than 400,000 lightning strikes recorded within 500km of Mount Gambier in southeastern SA between Monday morning and Tuesday lunchtime. 


While a few SA locations were lucky enough to see falls of 10mm or more (including Coonawarra with 24.4mm), most locations saw barely a drop – and certainly not enough to negate the effects of a lighting strike. 


A SA Country Fire Service spokesperson said that nearly all of the service's 68 brigades and trucks in the state's southeast have been actively responding to calls throughout the night and into the early morning.





Image: Fire incidents in SA at 1:30pm on Tuesday, Mar 11, 2025. Source: SA Country Fire Service.


You can see how the lightning outbreak developed overnight on the combined radar and lightning loop below, where pink indicates areas of lightning. 





Image: Six-hour radar loop showing rain and lightning approaching and then crossing SE South Australia and SW Victoria from 4pm to 10pm on Monday. March 10. 


READ MORE: KANGAROO ISLAND, THE ISLAND THAT RAIN FORGOT


Many parts of southern SA were also without power overnight due to thunderstorm activity.





Image: Map of lightning strikes in SA and VIC on Monday, Mar 10 and the first half of Tuesday, Mar 11, 2025.


For firefighters currently tackling blazes in South Australia, the weather outlook is not positive heading into the second of the working week.


After a Wednesday and Thursday with max temps in the high 20s or low 30s across much of southeastern SA, maximums will rise sharply to the mid-to-high 30s with highs of 37°C and 38°C expected in Adelaide on Friday and Saturday respectively, as northerly winds strengthen.


Please check the latest fire info at the South Australian Country Fire Service or the Emergency Vic Incidents and Warnings page.


Bushfires in South Australia and Victoria after massive outbreak of dry lightning on March 10 and 11, 2025.

Dry lightning outbreak sparks multiple fires

Australia just had one of its coolest and wettest summers of the last decade. However, there were clear signs that La Ni�a is finally losing its grip on Australia?s weather. 

Australia just had one of its coolest and wettest summers of the last decade. However, there were clear signs that La Ni�a is finally losing its grip on Austral...

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