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A cold front near Tas brings showers to the state while a moist, unstable air mass ahead of the front fuels showers & storms over western/central NSW, eastern SA and southern Qld. A moist onshore flow directs a few showers into SE Qld and NE NSW.
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24 Apr 2025, 11:42PM UTC
How weather impacted the original ANZAC day
April 25, 1915, is the date that the Anzacs began the Gallipoli Campaign. However, the original plan was for the invasion to begin at dawn on April 23. Bad weather caused a two day delay. The weather models and data that we take for granted today did not exist in either of the world wars and it was very difficult to create weather charts or make accurate forecasts even within a day. Today we can even use weather models to look back in time and see what the bad weather was that delayed the Gallipoli Campaign. On the 23rd sustained winds were blowing from the north-northeast at about 40km/h over the Aegean Sea between Greece and Turkey. This wind would have been a headwind and would have been producing waves of 1-2m. Image: near surface winds on April 23, 1915 (m/s). Source: NOAA. These winds were produced by a pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Europe and Russia and low pressure over Turkey. Image: Sea level pressure (SLP) anomaly on April 23, 1915. Yellow/Orange shows higher than normal pressure and blue lower than normal. Source: NOAA. A similar pattern is being forecast for next Monday, 28th April 2025. Note how tightly the isobars are packed across Turkey. Image: Mean sea level pressure on the morning of Monday, 28th April 2025 according to the ECMWF model. The sustained winds are forecast to be from the northeast at about 40-50km/h, similar to what would have been present on April 23, 1915. Image: sustained winds (knots) over the Aegean Sea at about dawn on Monday 28, 2025 according to the ECMWF model. Back to 1915. By dawn of April 25 the high pressure over Europe and Russia had weakened, reducing the pressure gradient across Turkey. This led to a weakening of the winds to about 20km/h, allowing the Anzacs passage from the island of Lemnos, Greece to the coast of western Turkey. Image: near surface winds on April 25, 1915 (m/s). Source: NOAA. In the second world war, the weather would play a similar but much greater role in the timing of the D-Day invasion. You can read about how a British forecaster was able to predict a break in the severe weather that determined D-Day: D-Day - the most important weather forecast in history - Met Office.
24 Apr 2025, 6:06AM UTC
How cold can Canberra get on Anzac Day?
The National Anzac Day Dawn Service on the Parade Ground of the Australian War Memorial in Canberra is a solemn occasion which is televised nationally. It also happens to be one of the chilliest dawn services anywhere in the country. And that got us thinking: how cold can Canberra get on Anzac Day? Canberra’s lowest Anzac Day temperature on record was in 1999, when the mercury fell to a frigid –3.7°C. That remains the capital’s lowest reading on any day in April. Anzac Day 2024 in Canberra was another chilly one, with a minimum of –0.5°C. READ MORE: A digger's letter from snowbound Gallipoli But Anzac Day in Canberra does not always begin with freezing conditions. Indeed, the capital’s average April minimum is 6.8°C, while its average on Anzac Day since 2009 (at the current Canberra Airport official weather station) has been 4.7°C. This year has been a good example of typical April variation in Canberra, with one night below freezing to date, and several nights so far where the minimum stayed in double-digit temperatures. As for Anzac Day 2025, it’s set to be one of the mild ones by local standards, with a minimum around 9°C ahead of a balmy day with a top of 24°C. When does Canberra’s first frost occur each year? While Anzac Day itself in Canberra is not always frosty, local lore holds that the city’s first frost of the year usually occurs around Anzac Day. Is this accurate? It’s actually a little earlier. In order for frost to form on grass, the temperature usually only needs to be as low as about 2°C. That’s because the standard Stevenson screen height (the box holding meteorological instruments) is 1.2 metres above ground level, and the ground tends to be significantly cooler than the air immediately above it. So to calculate the date of Canberra’s first frost, you need to find the average date of the first night with a minimum of 1.8°C or lower. Based on a small sample of records going back to 2008, the average date of the first night with a minimum temperature of 1.8°C or lower has been April 13. This sample size is too brief to be scientifically robust, but it’s still an indication of the date of the first frost in recent times. Image: Minimum temperatures across Australia on Anzac Day, 1999, when Canberra had its coldest April 25 on record. Source BoM. As for the coldest Anzac Day temperature on record anywhere in Australia, it must be stated that the BoM only publishes climate extremes dating back to 1957, but in the 68 years since then, the chilliest Anzac Day reading was –8.4°C at Cooma Airport in 1999. For those interested in the coldest temperature ever recorded in Australia on any day in April, it was –13°C at the small ski village of Charlotte Pass, NSW, on April 29, 2009. Charlotte Pass also registered Australia’s coldest night on record (any month) with a bone-chilling –23°C on June 29, 1994. Weatherzone would like to take this opportunity to express our respect and gratitude to all Australian servicemen and servicewomen, past and present. Lest we forget. READ MORE: From scorching heat to snow: the extreme weather of Gallipoli
24 Apr 2025, 1:37AM UTC
Long weekend rain and storms to impact Victoria and NSW
An outbreak of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will impact Victoria and NSW over the coming long weekend. As seen in the synoptic image below, this outbreak of storms and wet weather will be caused by a broad low pressure trough and cold front. Image: Synoptic image for Friday, 25 April. As the weekend goes on, the surface low pressure trough will move east over NSW. A pool of cold air reaching well above the surface will move over the surface trough, increasing the thunderstorm potential and deepening the surface low pressure. Along with this synoptic situation in place, streams of tropical moisture from both the northwest and northeast of the country (the purple streams converging over central and eastern Australia in the image below) will enhance the potential for heavy rain over the coming days. Image: Precipitable water and mean sea level pressure on Friday, 25 April afternoon. Victoria Thunderstorms and rain are possible from around dawn on Anzac Day (this Friday) over parts of western and central Victoria. The greatest risk of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will come between about late morning and early evening, across much of the state, except over eastern Victoria. As seen in the rainfall map below, widespread falls of 20-30mm will impact parts of central, western and northern Victoria until early Saturday, most of which is expected on Friday, with pockets of 40-50mm possible. Image: Accumulated rainfall to 4am on Saturday, 26 April. While a soggy Anzac Day dawn service isn’t ideal, this rainfall will be a much welcomed sight across western and central Victoria, which is has been experiencing severe rainfall deficiencies over the past 14 to 24 months, as seen in the image below. Image: Rainfall deficiencies across Australia between February 2024 and March 2025. Source: Bureau of Meteorology Thunderstorms may still linger into the early hours of Saturday but should contract to northern and eastern parts of the state as the trough deepens over NSW. A high pressure ridge should clear most showers into Sunday, leaving a cool day with some lingering cloud cover. New South Wales Heavy rain and intense thunderstorms are only expected over the southwest of the state on Friday afternoon and evening. Rainfall will spread over western and central NSW on Saturday morning, reaching east (including over Sydney) into the afternoon and evening, and into the southeast early on Sunday. Localised heavy falls are most likely with these thunderstorms, however large hail and damaging wind gusts are also possible, most likely over western and northern parts of the state. Image: Daily forecast on the Weatherzone app for Sydney, NSW, on Saturday, April 26. Widespread falls of 15-30mm are expected over the coming days, including across western NSW. The image below shows some areas of more intense rainfall over eastern NSW as the trough deepens on Sunday. Image: Accumulated rainfall to 4pm on Sunday, 27 April over NSW. Winds will strengthen from the south along eastern NSW on Sunday as a low deepens off the coast, with gusty showers persisting into Monday. Keep track of the latest warnings here.