Weather Warning

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Western Australia Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0651 UTC 05/03/2026 Name: Tropical Low Identifier: 28U Data At: 0600 UTC Latitude: 10.9S Longitude: 115.7E Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km) Movement Towards: east (095 deg) Speed of Movement: 22 knots (40 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h) Central Pressure: 992 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: None nm (130 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/6HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm (150 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 05/1200: 11.6S 117.9E: 030 (060): 035 (065): 995 +12: 05/1800: 12.8S 120.2E: 040 (075): 035 (065): 998 +18: 06/0000: 13.9S 121.3E: 050 (090): 035 (065): 998 +24: 06/0600: 14.8S 121.9E: 055 (100): 030 (055): 1000 +36: 06/1800: 15.7S 121.8E: 085 (155): 030 (055): 1000 +48: 07/0600: 16.2S 120.7E: 115 (210): 030 (055): 1000 +60: 07/1800: 16.5S 119.7E: 155 (290): 030 (055): 1000 +72: 08/0600: None None: None (None): None (None): None +96: 09/0600: None None: None (None): None (None): None +120: 10/0600: None None: None (None): None (None): None REMARKS: Tropical Low 28U has a only a small window of opportunity to develop into a tropical cyclone Thursday or Friday before conditions become unfavourable. Tropical Low 28U is located using visible satellite imagery with moderate to good confidence, there is deep convection persisting on the western side of the system but the low level centre is clearly exposed. Intensity is set at 45 kn weighted to ASCAT. The Dvorak cloud pattern applied was a shear pattern, the centre is within 0.5 degree of the cold cloud DT = 3.0. MET is 1.5 using a trend of W- over last 24 hours, PAT adjusted to 2.0, FT/CI 2.0. Overnight ASCAT at 1436 UTC showed the strongest winds are confined on the northern side of the system, with 40-45 kts, this morning's pass missed. Objective guidance at 0520 UTC ADT 35 kn, AiDT 34 kn, DPRINT 30 kn and no recent SATCON (1-min mean). CIMSS wind shear analysis from 00z this morning is at 39 knots and satellite imagery confirms the system is struggling under this high shear environment. Wind shear will likely remain high and the environment is likely to become less favourable overnight and into Friday with dry air present around the low. However, with the rapid movement and enhanced monsoonal flow to the north, gales are likely to persist to the north then northeast of the system until sometime Friday. The chance of a tropical cyclone developing has been decreased to Low for tonight and Friday. Winds around the system are forecast to decrease below gale force during Friday and 28U is likely to weaken as it approaches the WA coast. Motion is to the east due to the monsoonal westerly steering flow, and then to the south to southeast around the much larger Tropical Low 30U. The Fujiwhara Effect may affect the motion of 28U but there remains high confidence in this track until at least the weekend. On Saturday, some guidance maintains a weak low close to the Kimberley coast while others indicate 28U may move west southwest offshore from the Pilbara coast. The system is likely to dissipate by Sunday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.