Weather Warning

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: AUSTRALIA - Queensland Issued by Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1310 UTC 20/03/2026 Name: Tropical Cyclone Narelle Identifier: 34U Data At: 1200 UTC Latitude: 13.4S Longitude: 141.2E Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km) Movement Towards: west (267 deg) Speed of Movement: 10 knots (18 km/h) Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h) Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h) Central Pressure: 988 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km) Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm (45 km) Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km) Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm (45 km) Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km) Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0 STT:S0.0/03HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km) FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure (UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa +06: 20/1800: 13.4S 140.3E: 030 (060): 055 (100): 985 +12: 21/0000: 13.4S 139.1E: 040 (075): 060 (110): 982 +18: 21/0600: 13.4S 138.1E: 050 (090): 070 (130): 974 +24: 21/1200: 13.5S 137.1E: 050 (095): 075 (140): 970 +36: 22/0000: 13.7S 134.9E: 050 (095): 040 (075): 994 +48: 22/1200: 13.8S 132.4E: 050 (090): 030 (055): 1000 +60: 23/0000: 14.0S 129.8E: 055 (105): 035 (065): 997 +72: 23/1200: 14.3S 127.5E: 065 (120): 030 (055): 1000 +96: 24/1200: 15.3S 123.1E: 080 (150): 035 (065): 997 +120: 25/1200: 16.1S 118.9E: 105 (190): 055 (100): 985 REMARKS: Tropical cyclone Narelle now lies over the Gulf of Carpentaria and is expected to begin a period of reintensification. The centre remains trackable on Weipa radar with reasonable confidence. Satellite imagery suggests the system remains tilted under moderate to strong easterly deep layer shear. Subjective Dvorak is now applicable with the centre having moved over water, however, some caution is applied due to its recent track over land. DT is 3.0 based on a 3-hour average curved band pattern with a 0.6 wrap. FT/CI = 3.0. Intensity estimated at 50 kn, consistent with a recent SAR pass at 0855 UTC. CIMMS wind shear analysis at 0900 UTC shows upper easterlies over the system contributing to an analysed deep layer wind shear of around 20 to 25 knots. The environment remains marginally favourable due to the warm SSTs and high moisture along the track. Conditions are forecast to remain similar as Narelle tracks westwards with the system lying near the northern periphery of the upper ridge. Most NWP guidance suggests reintensification and category 3 strength is forecast prior to landfall on the eastern Northern Territory coast on Saturday night, which is consistent with a standard rate of development across the Gulf waters. A strong mid-level ridge extending across Australia into the Coral Sea will remain the dominant steering mechanism for Narelle well into next week. There is high confidence in a westward forecast track across northern Australia. Following landfall over the Northern Territory overnight on Saturday, Narelle will then move across the Top End and off the Kimberley coast next week, where redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is again likely. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1930 UTC.