The weather forecast for the fourth Ashes Test between Australia and England at the SCG, beginning January 5, could be worse but is not so great. Sydney Tests have been notorious for rain interruptions in recent years and that sort of pattern again looks likely this year.

But despite the strong chance of rain delays which will likely extend the game into days four and five (and perhaps not allow enough play for a result), we're still only giving you a three-day forecast.

Why? Because after England's miserable performance in the third Test in Melbourne, when they capitulated early on the third day, they're not worthy of it!

So then…

Image: The cricket weather could be a little iffy. Source: @Moremilu via Pixabay.

The overall weather pattern

Sydney had a wet December (132.8 mm) compared to its long-term average (77.1 mm) with rain recorded on 19 of the 31 days. The longest rain-free spell was just three days.

It looks as though the pattern of frequent rainfall with a predominance of moist, onshore easterly winds will continue for the foreseeable future.

While the last day of 2021 was a cracker (excuse the fireworks pun!), and while dry weather should prevail for the first few days of 2022, wet stuff is again on its way in this predictably soggy La Niña summer. Indeed the showers look likely to arrive just in time for the cricket.

Day 1 (Wednesday January 5)

A 90% chance of at least a light shower, with the possibility of 5-10 mm of rain. Maximum temp of 29°C.

Day 2 (Thursday January 6)

Similar to day one. The possibility of 5-10 mm of rain, with a 90% chance of something wet falling from the sky (in addition to beer showers in the outer). Expected top of 28°C.

Day 3 (Friday January 7)

Rinse and repeat. Tops of around 28°C and a 90% chance of a shower, though totals may be more in the 1-5 mm range.

And the final two days?

Wait, didn't we promise not to mention these? Well very quickly, on the off chance that England cricket team has not yet crumbled, the early indications are for a hottish Saturday with temps exceeding 30°C across Sydney with storms and a change later in the day, then easterly winds with potential showers on the Sunday.

And for those wondering why the Sydney Test is always so wet…

• Sydney is Australia’s second-wettest city (Darwin is the wettest).
• Sydney's rain is distributed relatively uniformly throughout the year, meaning it can and does rain at any time of year.
• Sydney's annual average rainfall of 1213.4 mm is more than double that of London!