Signs are not great for a significant snowfall ahead of the traditional King's Birthday (formerly Queen's birthday) long weekend in June.

The 2023 season-opener runs from Saturday June 10 to Monday June 12, and despite three decent snowfalls in May to date, the weather over the next 10 days does not promise much, if any, further snow.

Indeed, the current charts point to a worst-case scenario in the lead-up to June 10. The factors that could strip much of the existing cover, especially at lower elevations, include:

• Warmish temperatures
• Strong winds
• Frequent showers
• Nights too mild and humid for snowmaking (snowmaking requires not just cold air but dry air)

It's a very different picture to last year, when twin blizzards in the last few days of May and the first days of June left resorts boasting of the best start to a season since 1968, with around a metre of snow on the ground at higher levels.

Image: Thredbo in June 2022 was virtually 100% skiable. Here's hoping it doesn't take too long in 2023. Source: Thredbo.

Right now, the snow-bearing cold fronts are being blocked by a band of high pressure systems. In short, it looks like the sort of pattern you'd expect in an El Niño year, even though El Niño has not yet officially been declared.

If El Niño is declared, then the chances of a good snow season greatly diminish. As Weatherzone meteorologist Ben Domensino explained in our snow season outlook issued back on May 18:

"The worst combination of Pacific and Indian Ocean climate drivers for Aussie peak snow depth is El Niño and positive IOD (an index measuring the contrast in sea surface temperatures across the tropical Indian Ocean).

Unfortunately for Australian snow-lovers and industries that rely on the winter snowpack, both El Niño and a positive IOD are predicted to occur in 2023."

The good news is that it's not even June yet, and plenty of excellent seasons have kicked off with grassy ski slopes (away from snowmaking areas) on the June long weekend. There are also signs that a snowy system may develop on the long weekend itself, even if the lead-up period looks bleak for snow (check out our long-range charts).

But for now, the evidence of the snowfall that delivered around 15 cm of snow last week – and the two systems before that – is rapidly diminishing.

It also looks unlikely that we'll see favourable weather for snowmaking until midweek next week at the earliest, with a string of damp, warmish nights ahead for the mainland mountains.

Fingers crossed the pattern changes. Oh, and for those wondering, the king's actual birthday is November 14. His mother Queen Elizabeth was born on April 21. The public holiday is set each year for the second Monday in June regardless of the monarch's actual date of birth.

Image: There's plenty of time in the months ahead for enough snow to fall to form snow tunnels like this incredible scene at Mt Buller, Vic, in 2022, Source: Mt Buller Instagram.