With Tropical Cyclone Alfred now spinning over the Coral Sea as a category two system and strengthening, many Queenslanders are asking one question: will it hit Queensland?

The short answer to this question is that it is possible, but meteorologists can’t make the call either way just yet.

What is Alfred doing now?

At 4am AEST on Tuesday, Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located over the northern Coral Sea roughly 970 km to the northeast of Mackay. The system was a category two tropical cyclone at this time, with sustained wind speeds of around 95 km/h near its core. You can clearly see Alfred’s location in the satellite images below, which were captured as the sun rose on Tuesday morning.

Image: Satellite images showing Tropical Cyclone Alfred over the northern Coral Sea on Tuesday morning.

One thing that is clear in the images above is that Alfred is a long way from the Australian mainland. This means Australia is not currently experiencing any direct weather impacts from the tropical cyclone.

Where will Alfred go next?

There is good agreement between forecast models that Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move towards the south-southeast over the next few days. It is also expected to strengthen further over the next 24 to 48 hours, likely reaching category three strength on Wednesday or Thursday and possibly maintaining this category into Friday.

However, there is increasing uncertainty regarding Alfred’s strength and movement beyond Thursday.

Some forecast models suggest that Alfred may track towards the west and get closer to the Qld coast from the weekend into next week. Other models keep the system offshore. Most forecast models also expect Alfred to weaken from Friday or the weekend as it moves into a less favourable environment.

Images: Comparison of two forecast models showing predicted wind gusts at 10pm AEST on Monday, March 3, 2025.

At this stage, it’s not possible to know if Alfred will track over the Qld coast next week and if it does, whether it will be a tropical cyclone or a weaker low pressure system. This uncertainty makes it difficult to predict Alfred's impacts in Qld, although powerful waves hitting the coast would be the most likely threat based on current model guidance. 

At this stage, anyone living in eastern Queensland, or even northeast NSW, should keep a close eye on the latest tropical cyclone track maps and their local forecasts and warnings. Meteorologists should start to see more reliable information about Alfred’s future movement with each day that passes and there will be regular updates on the Weatherzone News feed over the coming week.