The 2023 Lexus Melbourne Cup, famously run over the gruelling 3200m at Flemington Racecourse, now appears likely to take place on a day of variable weather with the likelihood of late showers and storms.

Last Wednesday we issued an early Melbourne Cup Day weather overview, almost a week out from Tuesday's great race, in which we said it would be warm with the chance of a late shower.

Much can change in six days, which is why forecasts more than a few days out should always be taken as a guide, rather than gospel, but the warmth we predicted will definitely be around, with a maximum in the high twenties.

We also mentioned late showers, and what's changed since last week is that the stormy weather should now develop a little earlier in the day as moist north to northeasterly winds combine with an approaching trough.

Image: The weather probably won't be as good as it was on Saturday, November 4 for Derby Day. Source: AAP Image/James Ross.

Weatherzone meteorologist James Rout says that as warmth increases during the early afternoon thunderstorms will start to develop around Melbourne from about 2 pm onwards.

"At this stage, it looks like they shouldn't hit the racecourse until after the big race but you'll need to keep an eye on the sky during the early afternoon and it wouldn't hurt to have a brolly just in case."

Hollywood A-lister Matt Damon joined us trackside to kick off the Melbourne Cup Carnival as a special guest of Lexus????#LoveCupWeek #MelbCupCarnival pic.twitter.com/6mQYKjQejR

— Victoria Racing Club (@FlemingtonVRC) November 5, 2023

Melburnians are well accustomed to small hail which arrives with cold fronts, but Tuesday's storms could even potentially bring large hail of the type you associated with warm, unstable weather, and which is more common in tropical or subtropical parts of the country.

It would be quite the drama if large hailstones fell during Australia's most-watched horse race which jumps at 3 pm, but with luck, the stormiest weather will hold off until a little later in the afternoon.

In fact, a mid-race hailstorm would be "Absurde", and if you're wondering why we put the letter "e" on the end of the word absurd, take a look at horse number 7 in the Cup field.