Tropical Cyclone season officially started on November 1st and the first Tropical Low (02U) has already been observed far away from Australia on the edge of the Western Region. Typically, the first cyclones are observed over Australian waters in mid-to-late December and peak in late February/early March. 

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the Australian area of responsibility is between 90°E and 160°E and between 10°S and around 37°S (Figure 1). This includes coastal waters and land areas of Australia including Christmas Island, Cocos Island, Lord Howe Island, and Norfolk Island. 

Figure 1: The Australian Region of Responsibility showing the historical regional boundaries (BoM) 

At this point, the Tropical Low was located about 10°S 90°E at 9am AWST Saturday (Figure 2). This low isn't likely to develop into a tropical cyclone as the conditions are not favorable. The low is also moving to the west which means it will not impact the Cocos Islands, but move further into the Indian Ocean.

   Figure 2: Visible True Colour Satellite Himawari-8 with MSLP (ECMWF) on Saturday 5th at 11:40am (AEDT)

In the coming days, meteorological models do not indicate any chance of developing tropical cyclones that could affect Australia. Anyway, the season is just getting started, so stay tuned for updates to warnings in your region.