It's a hot and sweaty one out there in Sydney today, and while Australia's largest city hasn’t come close to what you might call serious summer heat in the high 30s or low 40s thus far in 2022, today should still be the hottest day of the year to date.

• The city is heading for a top of 32°C with a thunderstorm possible later on. Its hottest temp to date this year was 31.9°C on Feb 1.
• Penrith in the city's outer west is heading for 36°C with a medium chance of a shower or storm in the afternoon or evening. Its hottest reading to date this year was 34.9°C, also on Feb 1.
• Even suburbs along the cool, breezy coastal fringe should get close to 30°C, although residents of the eastern suburbs should be aware that most beaches are closed after yesterday’s tragic shark attack.

Why the heat today?

The heat is being pushed towards the coast from inland regions by northwesterly winds ahead of a trough moving across central parts of NSW.

Image: Not the worst day for a ferry ride in Sydney. Source: Scozzy via Pixabay.

This sort of set-up has not been common this summer, when moisture-laden winds from the east or northeast have dominated due to the La Niña effect.

La Niña typically makes for cooler summers due to increased cloud and rainfall. Interestingly, Sydney's average maximum temps have still been slightly higher than normal this year to date.

• January's average max was 27.7°C. The long-term average max is 26.0°C.
• To date in February 2022, the average max is 26.7°C. The long-term average max is 25.8°C.

Sydney's warm average temps are likely being accentuated by warm waters just offshore, which you can see illustrated really well in this BoM graphic showing sea durface temperature anomalies for January 2022.

Image: Note the warm blob right off Sydney. Source: BoM.

Despite the overall warm trend, Sydney and most of eastern NSW have not yet seen any real spikes of heat this year, as there were in the two summers before the La Niña summers of 2020/21 and 2021/22.

For example, on January 4, 2020, in the heart of the so-called "Black Summer", Penrith reached 48.9°C, the highest temp on record in any suburb of any Australian capital city.

There'll be nothing like that today. But it'll be hot enough, and Sydney temps should remain in the mid-to-high twenties for the next week or so, although there will likely be some showers about on most days.