Rain in Manchester – who would've thought it? But that's exactly what's on the weather menu for the fourth Ashes Test between Australia and England at Old Trafford, Manchester, starting Wednesday July 19 – and especially towards the back end of the match.

England fans in particular will be praying for clear skies, because:

• With the series poised at 2-1 Australia's way, England must win at Old Trafford to reclaim the Ashes, which Australia currently holds.
• A rain-affected draw would be the end of England's hopes.
• Even if England won the fifth Test at The Oval in London later next week, a 2-2 series result would keep the prized urn down under.

So how much rain will fall?

Weatherzone meteorologist Brett Dutschke believes that up to half the allotted match time could be lost due to rain.

To be clear, this does not mean that half of the actual match time would be lost, as there are provisions to make up time lost to rain delays by extending playing hours on subsequent days.

But still, this match looms as a three-way battle between England, Australia and the weather, thanks largely to that big low pressure system you can see pictured below on Saturday July 22, which Brett sees as the rainiest day of the Test.

Here's Brett’s day-by-day breakdown of the likely weather at Old Trafford

Wednesday July 19, Day 1: Showers on the first morning may delay the start of play. Showers are then expected to clear with skies brightening. Skies should stay clear right through the last session.

Thursday July 20, Day 2: Partly cloudy. A good chance of staying dry all day, with just a small chance of a brief light shower. Time could likely be made up from day one if needed.

Friday July 21, Day 3: Cloud increasing. Showers likely and while they'll most likely be light, they could potentially be frequent enough to stop play in each session, most likely the first session. There's also a slight chance of bad light ending the day early.

Saturday, July 22, Day 4: Cloudy again and increasingly humid with a southwest to southerly wind change. That could help bowlers generate some swing, but only if play proceeds. Rain could be steady enough to hold off play most of the day. Bad light will also be a factor.

Sunday July 23, Day 5: Another cloudy day with humid southwest to westerly winds off the Irish Sea. Showers are again likely and will potentially be frequent enough to hold off play most of the day. Bad light will once more be a factor.

So overall, the first three days look like the best chance of decent weather by Manchester standards. Whether that's enough time to get a quick result even at the hectic pace of "Bazball" English Test cricket is anyone's guess.

Can’t beat the Manchester weather 😂 pic.twitter.com/llUU00EPQw

— tony stewart 🦅 🖖🏼 (@antony1978) July 17, 2023

One thing we can state with confidence: while Aussies will be cheering for some classic English rain, we shouldn't feel too smug about our beautiful sunny climate. As we wrote here at Weatherzone in January 2022 after yet another rain-interrupted Sydney Test, Sydney has almost exactly the same total annual average rainfall as Manchester.