Sydney’s hot and sunny day is going to take a wild turn later this afternoon when a strong southerly change rips through the city, bringing with it the risk of peak hour rain and thunderstorms.

The satellite image below shows clear skies over Sydney and thunderstorms passing over the ACT and central inland NSW this afternoon. Some of these storms have been severe, with Canberra copping an 87 km/h wind gust and visibility down to 220 metres in heavy rain shortly after 3:00 pm.

Image: Composite satellite and radar over central NSW and the ACT at 2:40pm AEDT on Tuesday, February 21, 2023.

The thunderstorms in the image above are forming near a low pressure trough that is passing over NSW and the ACT, allowing relatively cool southerly winds to meet much warmer air to the north of the trough.

These contrasting air masses will cause cloud, rain and thunderstorms to spread further up the NSW coast and ranges on Tuesday afternoon and evening, along with a blustery southerly change near the coast.

The southerly change should sweep through the Sydney region between about 4:30 and 5:30pm, pushing up to the Central Coast around 5:30 to 6:30pm. This timing may vary by about one hour if the change speeds up or slows down.

Image: Forecast wind gust speed and direction at 5pm AEDT on Tuesday, according to the ACCESS-C model, showing the strong southerly change near Sydney.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop near and behind this afternoon’s change. While severe storms are not guaranteed, they will be a risk in and around Sydney this afternoon and early evening.

If you are going to be commuting in the Sydney region later today, be sure to check the latest warnings before heading outside.