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Ninety percent of Australia to see rain in next ten days

Ben Domensino

Australia is going to be stuck in a pattern of wet and stormy weather over the 10 days, with nearly the entire country expected to see some rain and several states likely to experience flooding.

The map below shows how much rain one computer model is predicting over Australia during the next 10 days, between Friday, November 5th and Sunday, November 14th.

Accumulated totals of over 50mm are possible in parts of most states and large areas of the country could be in line for more than 100mm.

Some of this rain will be falling over already wet or saturated catchment, following decent rainfall in recent weeks. This will raise the risk of both flash and riverine flooding.

The reason for Australia's sodden outlook is that several broad-scale climate drivers are in their 'wet phases' for Australia at the moment.

On the western side of Australia, a weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) pattern is in place across the Indian Ocean.

While this is likely the dying stages of a negative IOD event that has been in place since May, we are still seeing above average sea surface temperatures to the northwest of Australia. These warm waters are enhancing evaporation in the region and providing fuel for rain over parts of Australia.

On the eastern side of the country, a La Niña pattern is now well established in the Pacific Ocean. At the same time, sea surface temperature closer to the east coast of Australia are generally above average for this time of year. These two factors are combining enhance the amount of moisture in the atmosphere near northern and eastern Australia.

To the south of Australia, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently in a positive phase. This climate driver represents the position of a westerly wind belt that flows between Australia and Antarctica. In its current positive phase, the SAM is enhancing the flow of moisture-laden easterly winds over eastern Australia.

Keep an eye on the latest forecasts and warnings over the next couple of weeks to see how much rain you can expect in your area.

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