The wild weather is about to get even wilder out there in Sydney and nearby areas.

The Bureau of Meteorology has just issued its latest Severe Weather Warning for NSW at 11:02 am on Thursday, and it spells a dangerous situation for Sydney and nearby forecast districts.

The #WarragambaDam has hit capacity and has started to spill. While the dam spill was forecast, it has started earlier than predicted. Stay up to date and take all warnings seriously. For current warnings visit: https://t.co/I4qsVXddAe @BOM_NSW pic.twitter.com/42Ks6J8Hwp

— NSW SES (@NSWSES) March 2, 2022

Areas of eastern NSW from the Mid North Coast down through the Hunter, Central Coast, Sydney metro area and Illawarra – as well as the Central Tablelands – could all possibly see heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding and damaging winds with gusts in excess of 90 km/h.

This is a dangerous phase of a system which has already produced several days of rain. Numerous flood warnings are in place – including a moderate to major flood warning for the Hawkesbury and Nepean Rivers that skirt the edge of southwestern, western and northwestern Sydney.

Meanwhile huge numbers of people have been affected by the latest flooding:

NSW emergency service minister Steph Cooke said that the state had 76 evacuation orders in place, affecting 200,000 people.

A further 18 evacuation warnings have been issued, covering about 300,000 people.

"We have 500,000 people in our state right now, who are either the subject of an evacuation warning or an evacuation," the minister said.

Please check the NSW SES page for the latest evacuation advice. 

Where has the rain been heaviest?

Unusually for an event with an onshore flow, rain in the Sydney region has thus far been heavier in many western parts of the city and surrounds than in the CBD and coastal suburbs.

• For example, Penrith recorded 130.6 mm to 9 am this morning while Observatory Hill (at the southern end of the Sydney Harbour Bridge) recorded 50.8 mm.
• The Penrith figure was the heaviest 24-hour rainfall in any month in that particular location for 25 years.
• Warragamba Dam, which lies just beyond Sydney's southwestern outskirts, had 173 mm to 9 am today and 63 mm the previous day for an impressive of 48-hour total of 236 mm.

Other notable 24-hour totals to 9 am this morning include:

• 201 mm at Robertson
• 181 mm at Macquarie Pass
• 175 mm at Clover Hill
• 174 mm at Warragamba
• 164 mm at Brogers Creek
• 160 mm at East Kangaloon
• 155 mm at Rossmore and Darkes Forest
• 151 mm at Smallwoods Crossing
• 146 mm at Badgerys Creek
• 145 mm at Faulconbridge
• 145 mm at Shanes Park

So what's the situation right now?

Rain is currently heaviest in the Hunter region, as you can clearly see on this radar loop taken just after 11:30 am.

The reason the rain is currently heaviest north of Sydney is because of the position of the East Coast Low, which you can see indicated clearly on the current synoptic chart below.

It is expected that the low pressure system will push towards the central coast and Sydney today, causing rain to increase.

The good news is that heavy rain should be relatively short-lived with a clearing pattern later this evening. Friday, the coming weekend, and the week ahead all look wet, but as mentioned at the top of this story, the next six hours or so look like the most dangerous.

Please stay safe and dry if you can, and take all necessary precautions to avoid flooded roads and other areas. And remember to check our warnings page here.