The fourth big storm system of the month will bring bouts of heavy rain, snow and severe weather across the U.S. this weekend, with this latest system set to reignite an active storm track through the country going into early April.

The setup of this next system is a lot like the previous ones that brought severe weather to parts of the U.S. earlier this month. However, there will be some key differences that should make wind less intense compared to the system that caused dust storms and damaging winds in the Plains in mid-March.

An upper-level ridge will move over the U.S. this week and increase temperatures east of the Rockies. Some summer-like heat with temperatures in the 70s and 80s Fahrenheit will make it as far north as southeastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin on Friday, March, 28. Meanwhile, temperatures in the 30s will lurk north of the border into Canada.

This vast difference in temperatures will help to fuel a larger storm system that will move across the U.S. in a few phases.

Phase one

The first phase of the storm will move across the northern border region Thursday night and Friday. Snow is expected in Canada while showers and some thunderstorms are expected to form along the edge of the warm air in the Midwest. Some of these thunderstorms could be stronger, but severe weather is generally not expected at this time.

Phase two

The second phase of this system will move into the Central Plains on Saturday, March 29. Partly due to the system ahead of it, this one will have better access to moisture being drawn up from the Gulf. Heavy thunderstorms are expected across the Lower Mississippi River Valley and a band of rain and snow will form on the northern edge of the low-pressure track as it moves from the Central Plains through the Great Lakes.

Phase three

A third phase may extend some precipitation back across the Plains on Sunday, March 30 and finally push the cold front through the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. The system could continue through the Northeast for Monday, March 31 with the front dragging across the Gulf and East Coasts, causing more showers and thunderstorms.

With essentially a sequence of three storm systems moving through over four days, the exact impacts are a bit tricky to forecast and there is plenty of uncertainty. Timing, locations, and amounts of rain and snow are tough to pin down and your local forecast may change significantly over the coming days.

Impacts to expect from this system

The general idea is that we should see a band of snow develop from about Nebraska through Wisconsin, an area that has seen a band of snow developing with each of the previous systems. That could be heavy and result in more than six inches in some spots.

There will probably be another burst of snow moving through on Sunday, but this is most likely to be across Wyoming, Nebraska, and into Iowa, and possibly extending farther east across the Midwest as well.

Image: While areas and amounts may change, streaks of heavy snow are expected for some northern areas of the U.S. this weekend. Source: DTN

Heavy rain should be focused in a band that moves generally west to east from the Central Plains through the Midwest, and down south through the Gulf Coast states. Rainfall amounts over an inch are expected in many areas, which could lead to some flooding.

The cold front moving across the South should also lead to some severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is already targeting the Lower Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys for Sunday, and the Gulf Coast and Southeast on Monday. When the SPC puts outlooks out this far in advance, they are fairly certain that severe weather will be in play.

The one ingredient missing from this system will be extremely strong winds. No doubt, breezy winds will occur in some areas, and the Central and Southern Plains into the southwestern Midwest look like good areas to see breezy conditions on Friday, but gusts look to be more manageable in the 35-45 mph range and the gusts behind the cold front are currently forecast to remain below 40 mph. That would mean a very low chance for any blizzard conditions, dust storms, or wind damage from this series of systems.

This group of systems will reignite an active storm track through the country going into early April. Though the details of each subsequent system are much more uncertain than this weekend, expect additional storms to roll through in the middle of next week in the Tuesday to Thursday timeframe, April 1-3, and again over the weekend, around April 5-7. These two could also be strong spring systems with multiple impacts, including more heavy rain and snow as well as severe weather and strong winds.