Another relatively settled week is on the cards for parts of northern Australia, but there are signs that heavy rain and thunderstorms could return in the second half of March.

There has been a temporary easing of heavy monsoonal rainfall in northern Australia over the past week as the monsoon trough dissipated in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Anika.

While showers and storms have still moved over parts of Northern Australia each day last week, widespread rainfall totals have not been observed across a broad area of the tropics.

This is set to continue over the coming week week as the monsoon trough remains well to the north of Australia. The map below shows one model's weekly rainfall forecast leading up to Thursday, March 17 across northern Australia.

Image: ECMWF forecast rainfall for the week ending on Thursday, March 17.

While the NT and WA are both expecting another quiet weather week, a low-pressure trough sitting over QLD is likely to trigger heavier rainfall over the state's northern tropics, including the North Tropical Coast and Tablelands. Totals of 100-200 mm are forecast for the region over the coming week as the trough feeds high humidity air into the region.

Looking ahead, the tropics may re-awaken durig the second half of March, as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) moves to the north of Australia.

Some models are suggesting that the MJO will strengthen as it moves east across the Indian Ocean towards Australian longitudes. If this occurs, heavy rainfall, thunderstorm and cyclone risk will increase during the second half of March across northern Australia.

In response to this MJO pulse, there are signs that a tropical cyclone could develop in Australia's Western Region, most likely to the south of the Cocos Islands, next week. At this stage the system looks like it will stay well to the west of the Australian mainland.