It feels like a long time since we've had scorching hot weather for a men's cricket Test, but the 2022 Boxing Day Test between Australia and South Africa at the MCG looks likely to deliver, with temps in the mid-to-high thirties by day two.

• Last year's Boxing Day Ashes Test started on a chilly Melbourne day by summer standards, with southerly winds contributing to a maximum of just 18.8°C.
• It stayed cool for the next three days with max temps in the low twenties, before warming sharply to a max of 34.4°C on what would have been day five of the Test.
• There was, of course, no play on days four and five last year, as the Aussies – led by Scott Boland's remarkable spell of 6 for 7 in the second innings – destroyed England inside three days. 

So the 2021 Boxing Day Test was cool throughout, but this year the meteorological script is flipped. The forecast maximum temperature for Melbourne for the first three days of the 2022 Boxing Day Test is:

• Dec 26: max 30°C
• Dec 27: max 36°C
• Dec 28: max 36°C

Showers are highly unlikely on those first three days.

So while the Melbourne Cricket Club is encouraging patrons to wear a floppy hat and zinc to honour the late great Shane Warne, you'll definitely need a hat and sunscreen if you're attending the match.

Honouring Warnie.

The MCC and @CricketAus encourage all members, guests and spectators to wear a wide brim floppy hat and zinc to Day 1 of the Boxing Day Test. pic.twitter.com/7Oq594keaA

— Melbourne Cricket Club (@MCC_Members) December 19, 2022

As for December 29 and 30, it's still a little early to forecast max temps with any confidence, however it does appear likely that a cooler change will arrive on Thursday the 29th (day four of the Test).

It's probable that there will be plenty of cloud and wind about on the Thursday, however it may still be warm for a good portion of the day before the change arrives.

Cooler air will then move in, with possible showers after the front has passed through. At this stage, Friday the 30th looks breezy, cool and mostly cloudy – again with possible showers.

Of course, whether the match makes it as far as Thursday and Friday is another story.

Melbourne December weather stats (more here):

• Highest max: 43.7°C
• Lowest max: 10.4°C
• Mean max: 24.2°C
• Mean monthly rainfall: 58.8 mm
• Mean rain days: 10.3

And remember to stay up to date with our Melbourne forecast on this page.