A brief burst of heavy rain is likely to cause flash flooding along Queensland’s central coast and adjacent inland on Thursday.

A coastal trough being fed by a deep layer of moisture-laden winds coming off the Coral Sea will cause heavy rain over Qld’s central coast and adjacent inland on Wednesday night into Thursday. There also signs that a small low pressure system could form near the coast, which would further enhance rainfall in the region if it forms.

The rain from this system is expected to be brief but intense, likely brining 100 to 200 mm between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday night, with isolated falls possibly exceeding 300 mm. If this much rain does fall, it would easily be enough to cause localised flash flooding.

Image: Forecast accumulated rain over central Qld during the 48 hours ending at 10pm AEST on Thursday, November 21, 2024.

It's worth pointing out that there is some uncertainty regarding this event. It’s clear that a period of heavy rain will develop during Wednesday night and on Thursday. However, it’s uncertain exactly where and how much rain will fall, so be sure to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings during the next 48 hours.

In addition to the rain that’s about to soak Qld’s central coast, areas of rain and thunderstorms will also impact other parts of the state on Wednesday and Thursday.

Image: Forecast accumulated rain over Qld during the 48 hours ending at 10pm AEST on Thursday, November 21, 2024.

This wet and stormy weather is being fuelled by persistent moisture-laden air coming from the Coral Sea, where sea surface temperatures in some areas are running around 1°C warmer than average for this time of year. This extra warmth is enhancing evaporation and pumping more moisture into the atmosphere.

Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Coral Sea on November 17, 2024. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Rain should ease over central Qld on Friday, although showers and some thunderstorms will continue over the state’s north and east into the weekend.

Headline image credit: iStock / Smyk_