Marble Bar is on track to register four straight weeks of daily temperatures above 43ºC, possibly setting a new extreme heat record in a town already world famous for its relentless summer temperatures.

Marble Bar made international headlines in the 1920s when it registered 160 consecutive days above 37.8ºC (100ºF) in 1923-24, a world record that still stands to this day.

The outback WA town is now having another incredible run of heat that could see once again re-write the record books exactly 100 years later.

Image: An unofficial thermometer in Marble Bar registering a temperature of 51ºC on December 31, 2023. Source: AAP Image/Supplied by Wendy McWhirter Brooks

Marble Bar has reached or exceeded 43ºC (109ºF) every day between December 19, 2023 and January 10, 2024. This 23-day run of maximum temperatures at or above 43ºC is the equal 2nd longest such spell on record, matching similar heatwaves in 2021 and 2015-16, and beaten only by a 27-day stretch in 2005.

While Marble Bar is still a few days off the record, temperatures are forecast to reach 44 to 47ºC between now and Sunday, and 43ºC on Monday next week. If this run of days at or above 43ºC continues until Sunday, it will equal to current record. If it lasts until Monday, a new record will be set.

Image: Forecast maximum temperature on Wednesday, January 10, 2024, according to the ECMWF-HRES model.

The main reason Marble Bar has experienced such an intense run of heat in recent weeks has been the absence of the monsoon in northern Australia, which is associated with El Niño. While the monsoon trough is forecast to finally arrive over parts of northern Australia later this week, it will initially be too far east to bring any relief to Marble Bar.

So when will it cool down in Marble Bar? There are indications that a low pressure trough tapping into some tropical moisture may help keep the temperature under 43ºC around Tuesday next week. But by then, Marble Bar could have a new record to its name.