A few days ago, we anticipated unusual sights in Darwin - crocodiles sporting beanies and scarves to stay warm in the “cooler weather”. This has been a fact: the past three days in Darwin have been the coolest Wet Season spell in 6 years, and the coolest spell for February in 12 years, with an average temperature of only 27.9C. And if that wasn't enough, this has also been the wettest wet season to date in 5 years, ranking as the 10th wettest season in history, with rainfall already surpassing the average for the full season.   

So why the deluge and the “cold”? 

The start of February saw a strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) favouring cloudiness and rainfall across northern Australia, including Darwin. And now, with the Monsoon trough intensifying over the northern tropics, and the MJO showing signs of re-strengthening, rainfall activity is on the rise.  

The forecast for the coming days includes strong winds, heavy rain, and thunderstorms for northern Australia, with a risk of damaging wind gusts as a tropical low develops within the Monsoon trough near the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. 

Looking ahead, the Monsoon trough is expected to remain active for the next two weeks, and the MJO is set to remain in the Western Pacific Region during the first week of March, meaning that favourable conditions for above-average rainfall are likely to persist this fortnight.