Heavy rain one day, nothing much the next, heavy rain one day, nothing much the next, heavy rain one day, nothing much the next: that has been the rather unusual weather pattern in Darwin for more than a week now.

Many people mistakenly believe that it rains every day in the Top End wet season, but that's far from true.

• Even in January, which is Darwin's wettest month, the city sees an average of just 21.3 rain days across the 31 days of the month.
• December is on average Darwin's fourth-wettest month, with an average of 16.8 rain days across the 31 days of the month. So you'd expect rain about every second December day in Darwin.
• What you wouldn’t expect is a pattern like you can see in the green column in the table below, where the rain seems to be switching on and off like lights on the Christmas tree.

According to Weatherzone meteorologist Joel Pippard, the recent sequence of heavy rain one day, light rain or nothing the next, is likely nothing more a random pattern.

Pippard adds that the recent rain has originated from thunderstorms rather than the monsoon or a tropical low/cyclone that would deliver more consistent rainfall activity over consecutive days.

Over the next week or so, the on again, off again rain cycle looks likely to end, meaning Santa should have a mostly dry trip into Darwin for Christmas 2023.

Image: It's a bit of a croc that it rains every single day in Darwin in December. Source: iStock.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is about to enter a relatively inactive period, which generally diminishes the chances of storm activity over the Top End. Indeed Darwin should have a run of a few hot days leading up to Christmas, with tops of 36°C from Friday through to Sunday.

You can learn more about the MJO here. As for Darwin's Christmas Day forecast, our early prediction is for a mostly dry one, a top of 35°C, and just the chance of an afternoon shower.