There are signs that the tropics will reawaken over the coming week, with potential for two tropical low pressure systems or cyclones forming in the Australian region.

Despite La Niña, Australia has been having a relatively quiet tropical cyclone season so far. Since the start of November, there have only been four cyclones named inside Australia’s area of responsibility. This is well below the seasonal average of 11-12. The last tropical cyclone named in the Australian region was Tiffany, which first formed on January 8, well over a month ago.

This run without any new tropical cyclones could be about to end though, with the monsoon trough becoming active over northern Australia this week and the Madden-Julian Oscillation moving over the Maritime Continent (north of Australia). Both of these features are known to cause an increase in the likelihood of tropical cyclone activity.

A number of forecast models suggest that two tropical lows may develop near northern Australia later this week, one to the north of WA and the other somewhere around the Gulf of Carpentaria or northern Coral Sea.

At this stage, it is too early to know exactly where, when and how much these low pressure systems will develop. However, there is enough model agreement to suggest that the two low pressure systems may move into environments that are favourable for tropical cyclone development near Australia, most likely towards the end of this week or early next week.

The map below shows one model's forecast for Sunday, February 27, with a low pressure system or cyclone in the Coral Sea and off the northwest shelf of Australia.

Image: ECMWF mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and 24-hour rainfall forecast at 11pm AEDT Sunday, February 27, showing low pressure systems or cyclones to the northwest and northeast of Australia.

With a large degree of uncertainty at play, communities and industries based in northern WA, the NT’s Top End and anywhere from northern to southeast QLD should closely monitor the latest forecasts and tropical cyclone advisories during the next fortnight.

Tropical cyclone activity typically peaks in the Australian region during February and March due to an abundance of warm water around the continent. Sea surface temperatures are currently warmer than usual around most of northern Australia, which should assist in the development of any low pressure systems in the next fortnight.

Image: Sea surface temperature anomaly (deg C) on Monday, February 21, showing abnormally warm water surrounding northern Australia.

Weatherzone will be closely monitoring the situation and providing more updates in the coming days.