If there's one sure bet on Melbourne Cup day, it's that you can't expect warm spring weather at Flemington. And this year, a strong blast of Antarctic air is set to send a shiver right across Victoria.

There have been some truly appalling Melbourne Cup days over the years, including the 2017 Cup when the temperature was a miserable 14.4°C at 3 pm as the race jumped. And that was on November 7, a full week into the month.

The 2022 Melbourne Cup weather on November 1 doesn't look much better, and indeed it could even be worse than 2017, with a combination of bitterly cold temps, strong winds, showers and even small hail potentially on the cards.

Take a look at the image below.

It shows the 500 hPa temperature at 11am AEDT on Tuesday, according to the ECMWF-HRES model.

In simple terms, you're looking at a great big blob of cold air at upper levels of the atmosphere (roughly five to six km above the surface) that will pass over southern and southeastern Australia.

That air has come straight from Antarctica, and it’ll feel like it.

So what's the forecast for Cup Day on Tuesday through Oaks Day on Thursday?

"It's going to be a very chilly and occasionally wet week, with temperatures five to six degrees colder than average for the time of year, much more typical of August," Weatherzone meteorologist Brett Dutschke said,

"There will be enough rain in the lead-up to the cold outbreak to make the track at least soft, possibly heavy. Similarly, the grassy expanses of the Flemington lawn could tend to mud in patches and swallow up high heels."

• Cup Day itself should see top temperatures around 15°C, although it will feel a lot colder with breezy winds and showers. We can't rule out some small hail too.
• Wednesday should peak at around 16°C, with more wind and showers, while Oaks Day on Thursday should see similar conditions."

So all in all, it is going to be a seriously uncomfortable midweek for those brave enough to venture trackside.

Image: Artist's impression of the crowd at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day, 2022. Source: vladsilver, iStock.

As for the winner of the Cup? We can't comment on the race, but we reckon anyone who stays inside will definitely come out in front.