Today marks the start of the 2023-24 tropical cyclone season in Australia. Here’s a look at what to expect this season and how El Niño will influence tropical cyclone activity near Australia in the coming months.

Australia’s official tropical cyclone season runs from November until April. While tropical cyclones can form near the Australian region at any time of year – like Tropical Cyclone Lola last month – the vast majority form after November 1 and before April 30.

Image: Black line shows Australia’s area of responsibility for tropical cyclone monitoring.

On average, we usually see about 9 to 10 tropical cyclones in the Australian region each season, with around five of these becoming severe tropical cyclones and four making landfall. However, the number of tropical cyclones and landfalls in the Australian region is typically lower when El Niño is in place.

This season will be influenced by a strong El Niño event that is predicted to persist until at least the end of the Southern Hemisphere’s summer. This increases the likelihood that Australia will see a below-average number of tropical cyclones over the next six months.

It’s important to point out that a quiet season in terms of overall numbers does not mean it won’t be a dangerous season. It only takes one landfalling tropical cyclone to cause damage to communities and infrastructure in northern Australia.

This is a good time to make sure you are prepared for the severe weather tropical cyclones can bring in case one strikes your part of the country in the next six months. You can find more information on tropical cyclone activity and safety on the following pages:

Weatherzone’s tropical cyclone page: https://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/tropical-cyclones

The Bureau of Meteorology’s tropical cyclone page: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/

DFES tropical cyclone safety information: https://www.dfes.wa.gov.au/hazard-information/cyclone/prepare

The first tropical cyclone to form in the Australian region this season will be named Jasper.