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Showers and thunderstorms are easing over eastern Qld and NSW. Showers and storms linger over the Top End and far northern WA. A trough brings showers and isolated storms to SA. Moist winds cause light showers to SW WA. Clear skies elsewhere.
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Today, 5:09AM UTC
Days of severe thunderstorms ahead for Qld, NSW
A multi-day outbreak of severe thunderstorms will hit parts of Queensland and NSW over the next six days, culminating in a huge rainband sweeping over eastern Australia early next week. A series of upper-level troughs passing over eastern Australia will cause a period of unstable weather between now and Tuesday. This volatile six-day period will include daily rain and severe thunderstorm activity over parts of Qld and NSW, including numerous storm days around both Brisbane and Sydney. Thursday and Friday – storms building up Thursday will feature showers and thunderstorms in both states, mainly about the ranges and some areas of the coast. There may be a few severe thunderstorms over central and southeast Qld and northeast NSW in the afternoon and early evening. Friday will be more active, with thunderstorms possible over most of NSW and eastern Qld, and even extending down into Vic. Severe thunderstorms are again most likely to occur in central and southeast Qld and northeast NSW on Friday, although there could also be some severe storms in southwest NSW and northern Vic. Brisbane and western parts of Sydney could see thunderstorms on Friday afternoon or evening, which may disrupt Halloween activities. Be sure to check the radar and thunderstorm warnings before going trick-or-treating on Friday. Saturday and Sunday – violent thunderstorms likely Thunderstorms will become more intense on Saturday as the atmosphere becomes increasingly unstable in response to an upper-level trough. Storms could develop early in the morning over eastern parts of NSW and Qld on Saturday, before becoming more widespread and intense during the afternoon into the evening. Saturday’s storms will be most active between central eastern Qld and central NSW, which could include both Brisbane and Sydney. Supercell thunderstorms are possible on Saturday, and isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Image: Lifted index (LI) for late morning on Saturday. LI values below zero (blue shading) are indicative of an environment that is conducive to thunderstorms. This map shows that LI values will be lower than –6 in parts of NSW and Qld on Saturday, showing that the atmosphere will be very unstable and ripe for intense thunderstorms. Sunday’s thunderstorm activity will be less widespread as a brief reduction in atmospheric instability causes storms to mostly become confined to southeast Qld and far northeast NSW. Monday and Tuesday - Rainband developing with more storms A potent upper-level cut-off low will move across southeastern Australia early next week, causing areas of rain, thunderstorms and blustery winds across parts of Qld, NSW, the ACT, Vic, Tas, SA and the NT. A broad northwest cloudband ahead of the trough will also spread rain across much of central, eastern and southeastern Australia. This system will cause a dynamic mix of weather in multiple states on Monday and Tuesday, likely including heavy rain, severe thunderstorms, damaging winds, hail and snow. Some areas of eastern Australia have a chance of seeing thunderstorms every day for the next six days, with severe storms possible each day. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the next seven days combined. Be sure to keep a close eye on the latest forecasts and warnings in your area over the next six days and check the radar to see if storms are about before heading outdoors.
Today, 12:15AM UTC
Melbourne Cup 2025 weather: Rain and wintry temperatures in Melbourne on Monday, Tuesday
Rain is heading Melbourne’s way for the famous first Tuesday in November when the Melbourne Cup is run at Flemington Racecourse, with conditions across much of Victoria likely to be staying soggy after rain begins on Monday. While high cloud will thicken over Melbourne on Sunday, the temperature during most of the day will give little indication of what lies ahead, as northerlies funnel warm air southwards from Australia’s interior. A maximum around 30°C is likely in the city, with the mercury pushing well into the mid-30s in Victoria's northwest. "As the new week begins, a deep trough ahead of a cold front will extend high into the atmosphere, dragging tropical moisture towards southern Australia," Weatherzone meteorologist Jess Miskelly explains. "This trough will supply the instability to convert the abundant available moisture into significant rainfall." Image: Available water vapour that could convert to precipitation across Australia according to the ECMWF model for Monday, November 3, 2025. Melbourne is heading for a maximum of just 16°C on Monday and 18°C on Tuesday in the wake of an influx of cooler air from the south, which will make conditions uncomfortable for anyone spending the day outdoors without suitable outerwear. Rainfall totals of 20-40mm are forecast for Monday, with 10-20mm possible on Tuesday. Rain is likely to be heaviest at night, with the chance of showers clearing by Tuesday afternoon. To put the potential rainfall early next week in perspective, Melbourne has received 20mm of rain (or higher) on just three days in 2025 to date. It happened twice in January, and the most recent case was this week (Monday, October 27, which was the heaviest rain day of 2025 with 35.4mm). So this is a significant rainfall event that looks to be peaking in Melbourne on a day when there is widespread interest in the famously fickle weather of the Victorian capital. Image: Hourly Graphs for Tuesday, November 4, 2025, on the Weatherzone app. But the rain will not be confined to Victoria. Rain will begin falling in southern and southeastern parts of South Australia during Sunday, with a period of wet weather to follow across much of eastern Australia and Tasmania. Spring soakings like this are usually welcome in southern and inland parts of the mainland before the weather starts to dry out towards summer. There will, however, be many Victorians whose public holiday plans are dampened next Tuesday, November 4. Our Melbourne forecast is here.
29 Oct 2025, 4:45AM UTC
Why was Hurricane Melissa so strong when it hit Jamaica?
Hurricane Melissa became the strongest hurricane on record to strike Jamaica when it made landfall as a ferocious category 5 system on Tuesday. Melissa crossed the Jamaican coast near New Hope on Tuesday, October 28, with a central pressure of around 892 hPa and one-minute sustained winds reaching 160 knots (around 296 km/h) near its core. Hurricane Melissa was one of the strongest systems ever recorded in the Atlantic. Based on preliminary central pressure estimates, Hurricane Melissa tied with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane as the strongest landfalling hurricane on record in the Atlantic region. These two systems are also tied as the third most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, beaten only by Wilma (882 hpa in 2005) and Gilbert (888 hpa in 1988). Video: Hurricane Melissa approaching and making landfall over Jamaica on Tuesday, October 28, 2025. Source: CIRA The destruction caused by this powerful hurricane will be severe and long-lasting. On Tuesday night local time in Jamaica, there were reports of damage to hospitals, residential properties and other infrastructure including roads, while more than 500,000 residents were without power. It will take time for the full extent of the damage to be surveyed. Cuba, Bahamas next in line Hurricane Mellisa weakened as it passed over Jamaica’s mountainous terrain on Tuesday, emerging off the country’s north coast as a category four hurricane. The system is expected to intensify as it moves north towards Cuba, where it should make a second landfall late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Melissa should then track across the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday before moving quickly towards the northeast and passing near Bermuda late on Thursday. As of 0300 UTC on Wednesday (11pm Tuesday local time in Cuba), hurricane warnings from the US National Hurricane Center were in place for Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas, and the Southeastern and Central Bahamas. What made Melissa so strong? All hurricanes, tropical cyclones and typhoons need the following key ingredients to intensify: Warm sea surface temperatures, which provide energy. Low vertical wind shear, meaning wind speed and direction don’t change much with height, to help keep the system symmetrical. Good outflow of air at the upper levels of the system, making space for more air to rise through the atmosphere as the system gains strength. Melissa encountered an ideal environment for cyclone intensification as it traversed the Caribbean Sea in the last few days. Wind shear was low, there was good outflow in the upper-levels and sea surface temperatures were close to 30°C, more than 1°C warmer than average for this time of year and well above the 26.5°C threshold required for hurricane formation. Image: Sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea on October 27, 2025. Source: NOAA How does Melissa compare to Australia’s strongest tropical cyclones? The strongest tropical cyclones on record in the Australian region, based on central pressure, were Tropical Cyclone Gwenda in 1999 and Tropical Cyclone Inigo in 2003. These systems both had a central pressure of 900 hPa at their peak intensity. When Hurricane Melissa hit Jamaica on Tuesday, it was more powerful that any tropical cyclone that has been recorded in the Australian region.