Australian Weather

03 Jun 2026, 1:29AM UTC

Wet, wintry weather has arrived in Melbourne, with showers and strong winds on the menu for Wednesday, and especially Thursday, as a cold front surges across Victoria. Thursday should be one of Melbourne’s wettest and coldest days of 2026 to date, as the low pressure system currently centred over waters just south of western Victoria pushes cold, moist air across the state. How wet will Melbourne be? Image: Accumulated rainfall in Victoria and nearby areas up until 10pm (AEST) on Friday, June 5, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. While only a few showers are expected this Wednesday, Thursday’s predicted rainfall range in Melbourne is 10 to 30mm, meaning it could potentially be the city’s wettest day so far this year. Melbourne’s wettest day of the year to date was March 27, with 19 mm. A similar total on Thursday would be welcomed by most locals, as Melbourne accumulated only two-thirds of its average running rainfall total over the first five months of 2026. Image: Rainfall deciles across Victoria for the first five months of 2026, showing deficiencies in the south and southwest of the state, including around Melbourne. Source: BoM. Elsewhere in Victoria, the heaviest falls on both Wednesday and Thursday will likely be in the high country, with precipitation falling as snow down to 1300 metres above sea level this Wednesday and 1100 m on Thursday. Numerous high country locations have already seen heavy rain this week, with Mt Buffalo Chalet recording the state’s highest rainfall total in the 24 hours to 9am Wednesday, with 78.2mm. But as mentioned, that rain will start to turn to snow up high, which is good news for the official opening of the 2026 ski season this coming long weekend. How cold will Melbourne be? On Thursday, Melbourne is heading for a top of just 14°C, which would be the first day this winter when the maximum is below the long-term June average of 14.1°C. The city’s coldest day to date in 2026 was May 7, when a strong autumn cold front kept the maximum to exactly 14.0°C. Image: Essentially the whole state of Victoria will see maximums of 15°C or lower on Thursday, June 4, 2026, according to the ECMWF model. Source: Weatherzone. But Thursday will likely feel considerably colder than 14°C due to strong northwesterly winds which will turn southwesterly in the afternoon. The apparent or "feels like" temperature should fluctuate between just 7°C and 9°C during daylight hours. After an unseasonably warm May when Melbourne’s minimums were 2.4°C above average and maximums were 1.9°C above average, not too many Melbourne folk will have reason to complain when winter starts feeling like winter. But the chilly spell will only be brief, with relatively mild maxiumums in the mid-to-high teens expected for the weekend and skies clearing after a possible shower or two on Saturday morning.

02 Jun 2026, 4:23AM UTC

Tasmania and Hobart just had their warmest May on record based on maximum temperatures, with Victoria and New South Wales also having an exceptionally warm month. Unusually high pressure over New Zealand in May helped shield Tasmania from cold air and early-season frontal systems. This blocking pattern also caused air to flow over abnormally warm water in the Tasman Sea before reaching Tasmania, further insulating the state from pre-winter cold spells. Image: Mean sea level pressure anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere during May 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Tasmania’s state-averaged maximum temperature in May was 14.64°C, which was 2.24°C above the 1961-1990 average. The previous record maximum temperature anomaly for Tasmania was +1.87°C from 2007, with data available back to 1910. Hobart also set a record for daytime warmth last month. The city’s average maximum temperature during May was 17.38°C, beating the previous record of 17.30°C from 2007. Remarkably, even Hobart's coldest day in May reached 12.1°C – equal to the highest 'coldest day' on record for the month, matched only in 2007. May also capped off Hobart’s warmest autumn (March to May) on record, with a seasonal average maximum temperature of 19.43°C, beating the old record from 2016 by 0.22°C. Hobart’s maximum temperature data dates back more than 140 years to 1882. Warm across southeastern Australia May was an abnormally warm month for large areas of southeastern Australia, particularly when combining both minimum and maximum temperatures. Image: Mean temperature deciles across Australia in May 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. Victoria and New South Wales both registered their second warmest Mays on record based on mean temperatures, with anomalies of +1.87°C and +2.04°C, respectively. These were only beaten by 2007. Sydney had its second warmest May on record based on mean temperature, with an average of 18.19°C for the month. This was only just behind the record of 18.22°C from 1958. The city’s average minimum temperature of 14.51°C in May 2026 was a new record by more than half a degree. Sydney’s temperature observations date back more than 160 years to 1859. How does this May fit into longer-term trends? Mays have been getting warmer across southeastern Australia in recent decades. According to data from the Bureau of Meteorology, the mean May temperature in southeastern Australia has increased by around 0.11°C per decade during the last 117 years, equivalent to almost 1.3°C of warming between 1910 and 2026. Image: Long-term May mean temperature trend for southeastern Australia. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. This warming trend is likely to have contributed to the record-breaking temperatures seen in parts of southeastern Australia during May 2026. However, it was not the only factor, with local weather patterns also playing a big part in making last month so warm.