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An unstable trough over the NT interior is producing showers. A cold and gusty southwesterly air stream is bringing showers to Tas and southern Vic. Moist southeasterly winds are causing showers over the far north Qld coast. Settled elsewhere with high pressure.
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Today, 8:09AM UTC
Super Typhoon Bavi headed for Guam, Taiwan
A powerful typhoon in the western Pacific Ocean is currently making its way towards the Mariana Islands and the U.S. island territory of Guam, and could directly impact Taiwan late next week. Super Typhoon Bavi is, at the time of writing, located about 650km east of Guam and travelling westward at a speed of approximately 13 km/h, generating maximum sustained winds of about 260 km/h and significant wave heights of around 13.5 metres. The powerful system has developed a small but distinct eye about 30-40km wide, as you can see below. Image: The photogenic eye of Super Typhoon Bavi, as seen from the Himawari-9 satellite this afternoon, Saturday, July 4, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. As powerful as this system currently is, there are signs it could intensify further before crossing the Mariana Islands in the early morning of Monday, July 6. At this stage, its most likely point of impact will be somewhere between Guam and the island of Saipan, generating sustained winds of 275 km/h, gusts of up to 325 km/h, and rainfall accumulations of 300-500mm, mainly falling within a 12-hour window between 4am and 4pm on Monday. Image: ECMWF and GFS forecasts for (top) mean sea level pressure and 24-hour rainfall accumulations and (bottom) sustained winds near Guam and the lower Mariana Islands on Monday morning, July 6, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. From there, Super Typhoon Bavi is currently forecast to barrel towards Taiwan, and could potentially make landfall over the island’s northeast in the early hours of Saturday, July 11, possibly matching the wind strength and rainfall accumulations currently expected for the Mariana Islands. Image: ECMWF and GFS forecasts for (top) mean sea level pressure and 24-hour rainfall accumulations and (bottom) sustained winds near Taiwan on Saturday morning, July 11, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. But with a week to go before Bavi approaches Taiwan, forecasts could change significantly. If you're planning to travel to or be in Taiwan next weekend, keep your eyes peeled for any forecast updates.
02 Jul 2026, 11:02PM UTC
25 centimetres of snow falls just in time for the school holidays
Significant snowfalls have finally coated the Australian high country after a mild, wet, largely snowless June. Thredbo in New South Wales was reporting 28 centimetres of snow overnight with snowfalls continuing this Friday morning, its near neighbour Perisher reported 25 cm, while Mt Hotham in Victoria reported 22 cm and counting. Image: A healthy total on the Perisher snowstake as dawn breaks on Friday, July 3, 2026. Source: Perisher. Just in time for the school holidays The timing of this snowy system could hardly have been more perfect for NSW schoolkids and their families, with school holidays starting this weekend. Victorian schoolkids have already been off school for a week, but at least the second week of the Vic school holidays should see some skiable terrain opening up. Up until today, mainland Australia’s ski resorts have been able to open only the most basic beginner slopes on thin ribbons of snowmaking snow. By next week, more terrain could open. While it takes a lot more snow to get the Australian snow season into full swing than the 25 centimetres which fell overnight (plus an additional 10 cm or so which may fall today), every snowflake helps. Wild winds accompany Friday’s snowfalls Image: Combined satellite and radar loop for SE Australia for the eight hours to 8am (AEST) on Friday, July 3, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. As often happens with midwinter snow-bearing systems, wild winds ushered in the snowy weather, with overnight wind gusts topping 100 km/h in alpine resorts on both side of the border as the cold front moved through. Severe weather warnings for damaging winds were issued for elevated parts of eastern Vic and southeast NSW early this Friday, although winds should start to ease by lunchtime. At 8 am this Friday, it was -3.4°C at Thredbo Top Station, with an apparent or "feels like" temperature of -17.5°C due to the wind chill. Cool days, cold, clear nights to follow Image: Daily forecast for Perisher on the Weatherzone app. A string of cold nights in the wake of the current system will be perfect for firing up the snowmaking guns at all resorts. Ideal snowmaking conditions require not just sub-zero temperatures but low humidity, and that’s on the meteorological menu for southeastern Australia for the next week or so, once this storm clears. For example, Perisher is forecast to fall to -4°C or colder over the next six nights, with daytime temperatures only climbing a few degrees above zero, which should keep the snow intact. READ MORE: Snowmaking begins in Australia, but how does it work? Please check the Weatherzone snow page for the latest forecasts, live cam images and more.
02 Jul 2026, 5:42AM UTC
Rare July tropical cyclone risk in southwest Pacific this week
The Bureau of Meteorology is monitoring a tropical disturbance near the Solomon Islands, with a low chance it could develop into a rare July tropical cyclone later this week. A broad area of convective activity associated with a low pressure trough to the east of the Solomon Islands may consolidate into a Tropical Low on Thursday or Friday. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, “the tropical system has a Low chance of developing into a tropical cyclone from Friday to Sunday.” While this system is unlikely to affect Australia, it is expected to bring heavy rain and strong winds to parts of the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea later this week, regardless of whether it reaches tropical cyclone strength. Image: Visible satellite images showing cloud associated with a tropical disturbance near the Solomon Islands on Thursday, July 2, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Unusual time for tropical cyclone activity The tropical cyclone season for the Australian region – which includes part of the Solomon Islands – runs from November to April. This is when the oceans are warmest and the atmosphere is most supportive of cyclone development in the Southern Hemisphere tropics. The vast majority of past tropical cyclones in the Australian region have developed during this six-month period. However, tropical cyclones can develop outside the traditional cyclone season. On rare occasions, they can even form during the Southern Hemisphere’s winter. Since 1970, there have only been four tropical cyclones in or near the Australian region during July, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s tropical cyclone database. The most recent was an unnamed system that briefly became a tropical cyclone near the Cocos (Keeling) Islands in late July 2022. While this system was not named in real-time, a post-event analysis determined that it had intensified enough to be classified as a category 1 tropical cyclone. Tropical Cyclone Raquel was the next most recent July cyclone, forming near the Solomon Islands on July 1, 2015, and dissipating the next day. Raquel was the first tropical cyclone in records dating back to 1970 to form in Australia's Eastern Region during July. Other July tropical cyclones included one more unnamed system in 2007 and Tropical Cyclone Lindsay in 1996, both located over the Indian Ocean to the west of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. If a tropical cyclone does develop or move into the Australian region near the Solomon Islands later this week, it would become only the second time a tropical cyclone has formed in the Eastern Region during July.