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A low is bringing strong winds and showers to eastern NSW and eastern Vic. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are affecting eastern WA, the NT and Qld as a weakening tropical low and a moist airstream track eastward. Moist winds around a high bring showers to Tas.
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Today, 1:23AM UTC
Powerful bombing Tasman Low brings large waves to NSW
A powerful Tasman Low spinning off Australia’s East Coast is whipping up large waves along coastal NSW. A low pressure trough that slowly made its way from outback Queensland and over NSW over the past week, delivering widespread flooding, then moved off the NSW coast this weekend. Very warm sea surface temperatures, along with support from low pressure in the upper atmosphere, allowed a powerful Tasman Low to spin up on Sunday, March 30. Image: Satellite loop of the low developing on Monday, March 31. The central pressure of the low at 11pm AEDT on Sunday, March 30, was 997hPa, and is forecast to quickly drop below 980hPa by Monday afternoon. This technically classifies this low as a bombing low, another way of saying it has undergone explosive cyclogenesis. This rapid intensification generated strong southerly winds along the coastal fringe, reaching over 100km/h for exposed coastal locations. The strong gale to storm strength winds have generated large seas across the Tasman, with significant wave heights reaching around 10 metres near the low, as reflected in the forecast image below. Image: DTN’s OneFX significant wave heights in the Tasman Sea at 11pm on Monday, March 31. The image below shows wave heights rapidly climbing at NSW’s wave observation buoys on Sunday, March 30, reaching 4-5.5 metres across buoys south from Sydney. Significant wave heights reaching 5-6 metres will continue to batter the coastline through the remainder of Monday and Tuesday, before slowly easing on Wednesday. Maximum wave heights reaching 11-13 metres are also expected over this period. Image: Significant wave heights recorded across NSW waverider buoys over the past week, with a rapid increase in height on Sunday, March 30. Source: Manly Hydraulics Laboratory. Coastal erosion is usually subdued in powerful southerly swells like this one with south-facing beaches protected by offshore sandbars and healthy sand dunes. However, the peak of the swell should occur around Tuesday's high tide around 11am, with the swell veering slightly to a more south-southeast direction. This could result in some enhanced sand loss across south facing beaches, with waves potentially lapping on the sand dunes. Needless to say, with a warning for damaging surf across the NSW coastline south of about South West Rocks, a day at the beach is ill-advised. More low pressure in the Tasman to come? Autumn and early winter are peak times for significant low pressure systems to develop over the Tasman Sea. These include Tasman Lows, East Coast Lows and coastal troughs. This is mainly due to the lingering very warm sea surface temperatures that run off the Australian East Coast. Ocean temperatures generally lag about two months behind the atmosphere’s temperature, and with record warm sea surface temperatures likely to continue around Australia, conditions are primed for more lows to form off the east coast. Long range modelling of sea level pressure anomalies, as shown below, indicate increased potential for negative pressure anomalies off the East Coast in late autumn. This anomaly suggests that more low pressure systems than normal, like Tasman Lows and East Coast Lows, could form over the remainder of autumn and early winter. Image: Forecast monthly sea level pressure anomalies around Australia in May 2025. With some areas still recovering from coastal erosion brought by Tropical Cyclone Alfred, the outlook for more powerful storms in the Tasman is an unwelcome sign.
Today, 12:45AM UTC
Flood alerts stretch 3000km across Australia – more rain on the way
The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Dianne will spread rain over a broad area of central and eastern Australia this week, dumping more water into already flooded rivers across several states and territories. The satellite images below show widespread cloud over central and northern Australia on Monday morning. The cloud over the country’s interior is associated with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Dianne, which made landfall over the Kimberely coast early on Saturday morning and has since weakened and moved over WA’s North Interior. Image: Satellite images showing cloud over Australia on Monday morning, March 31. The cloud associated with the remnants of Dianne will cause heavy rain to spread over central Australia on Monday. This has prompted severe weather warnings for heavy rain and flash flooding in parts of the WA Interior and the NT’s Tanami and Lasseter districts. Cloud and rain will spread further east from Tuesday to Thursday, soaking parts of the NT, SA, Qld and northern NSW. Rain and storms from this system should then contract to northern and central Qld from Friday before easing over the weekend. Image: Forecast accumulated rain this week, according to the ECMWF-HRES model. This week’s rain will be enough to cause or exacerbate flooding across a broad area of central and eastern Australia. On Monday morning, flood watches and flood warnings were in place in districts spanning more than 3000 km across Australia, from the WA Interior to the nation’s east coast. Image: Districts with warnings in place at 10:50am AEDT on Monday, March 31, 2025. The districts with purple boundaries highlight where flood watches or flood warnings were in place. The flooding that will be caused by the rain falling this week, combined with the rain that inundated river systems in recent weeks, is likely to cause significant river, creek and stream level rises. This may cause overland inundation that could affect roads and railway lines, possibly isolating communities and homesteads. Be sure to check the latest weather and flood warnings for the latest information and check road conditions before travelling.
29 Mar 2025, 10:33PM UTC
Damaging winds rip through NSW coast
Residents of eastern NSW have not experienced great outdoor weather this weekend, but Saturday night turned it up a notch, as damaging winds and heavy rain pushed through coastal Sydney and Illawarra overnight into Sunday morning. The culprit of this weather is a trough that moved offshore yesterday, with a low developing on its southern end, just off the Sydney coast. This wind was amplified by the synoptic forcing of the developing low as well as interaction with the nearby Great Dividing Range, allowing gusts to reach more than 100km/h for parts of the NSW coast. GIF: Infrared satellite showing development of the low off the NSW coast overnight So far, Wattamolla, between Sydney and Wollongong, has the highest recorded wind gust of this event with 111km/h. Other significant wind gusts include: 103km/h at Kiama 98km/h at Port Botany 96km/h at Bellambi 91km/h at Ulladulla 82km/h at Kurnell 78km/h at Sydney Airport The GIF above not only shows you the overnight development of the low offshore, but also the thicker clouds in yellow to brown shadings near the Illawarra and South Coast districts. Those were rain bearing clouds that brought about substantial rainfall along coastal areas, with widespread 24 hour totals of 50-100mm between Wollongong and Ulladulla, adding to moderate rainfall totals from between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning. Some of the most significant 24 hour totals to 9am this morning include: 210mm at Currarong 107mm at Jervis Bay 93mm at Point Perpendicular 70mm at Ulladulla 61mm at Kiama Image: forecast winds over the Tasman sea on the morning of Wednesday 2nd April The low is expected to continue to develop in the coming days as it tracks southeast over the Tasman Sea. Damaging winds are likely for parts of the southern and central NSW coast through most of today, remaining strong into early next week. In addition, moderate rainfall totals of 20-50mm are expected for southeast NSW until Monday. This type of weather can lead to various hazards such trees falling down, so make sure to take care if you are heading out in the area today and keep an eye on the latest warnings and information here.