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A high over Tas is continuing to trap cool air & low cloud over parts of Vic & SA while directing cool, showery S'ly winds along the east coast. An upper disturbance & area of low pressure is bringing the odd shower & storm to the interior while a high brings stable weather to WA
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Today, 1:51AM UTC
Weekend snowfalls coming after sunny week
Fresh snow is forecast to fall in the Australian Alps this weekend, after the heaviest falls of the season to date last Friday. The coming system is not expected to deliver a huge quantity of snow. Totals in the vicinity of 10 to 15 cm at the mid-level of most ski resorts, with slightly more at higher elevations, appear a realistic outcome at this stage, with the most consistent period of snow showers occurring on Sunday. But after a lean start to the 2026 snow season, every flake will be welcomed by snow enthusiasts and the resort staff and nearby businesses which depend on the tourist trade. Let’s take a look at the 2026 season to date before we dive further into the impending snowy weather system. 35 cm snowpack after slow start to snow season Image: Snow depths at Spencers Creek, NSW after the first week of July 2026 (the dark blue line) compared to 2025 (light blue). Source: Snowy Hydro. This week, hydro-electric operator Snowy Hydro measured the snowpack at 35.4 cm at Spencers Creek – roughly halfway between the NSW resorts of Perisher and Thredbo. Spencers Creek is the highest of three sites where depths have been regularly measured in the cooler months since 1954. This season was only the second time on record when Spencers Creek was snowless on July 1. While early snow fell before the King’s Birthday long weekend season opening, several moist airmasses with tropical origins then crossed the mountains during June, bringing rain, not snow. Last Friday’s snowfall was a step in the right direction. Since then, the weather has been cool, dry and sunny, enabling the snowpack to condense and form a firm base on which further snowfalls can accumulate. And as mentioned, a top-up looms on the immediate horizon. Image: Sunny skies at Perisher on July 7, 2026. Source: Steve Smith. Windy, snowy weekend ahead When snow falls in Australia, it usually arrives with strong winds, as the vast majority of our snow-bearing systems originate in the strong band of westerlies which circulate the globe south of Australia. The cold front tracking towards southeastern Australia this weekend will be a classic wild, windy, wintry system which will make conditions decidedly unpleasant on in the mountains. At this stage, it doesn’t look like the coldest or snowiest system of the winter, as the cold front will only clip the southeast corner of the mainland. But Tasmania could be in for heavier snowfalls, with totals of 20 cm or more likely over the Central Highlands. Image: Precipitable water and mean sea level pressure for Australia predicted for Australia on July 11, 2026, according to the ECMWF model, showing the westerly flow that will bring snow to the mountains of southeastern Australia. Source: Weatherzone. How is the rest of the season looking for snowfalls? It’s still only relatively early in the season, so there is plenty of time for 2026 to turn into a good snow year. Famously, the 1991 season started poorly like 2026 before frequent snowfalls from mid-July onwards took the season peak to almost three metres at Spencers Creek. That could still happen. Image: A comparison of the 1991 season (light blue) and 2026 season to date (dark blue) at Spencers Creek, NSW. Source: Snowy Hydro. Currently, there are two broad-scale climate drivers affecting Australian weather which are not historically conducive to consistent heavy snowfalls: the positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño. During a positive SAM, the band of westerlies that bring snow to southern Australia tend to circulate the globe at latitudes closer to Antarctica. The SAM index recently hit a three-year high, which was not great news for potential snowfalls. But the SAM now appears to be trending towards a neutral phase. Image: Movement of the SAM index over the past 12 months. Source: BoM. We’re also in an El Niño, which historically has coincided with relatively meagre Australian snow seasons. READ MORE: How do 'super' El Niño events affect the Australian snow season? The good news is that day-to-day weather systems can often defy the broad-scale influences of climate drivers, so there remains realistic hope for snowy systems to follow this weekend’s top-up. Please check the Weatherzone snow page for the latest forecasts, live cam images and more.
07 Jul 2026, 3:34AM UTC
Pacific Ocean subsurface water now 8°C above normal – what this means for El Niño
A large pool of exceptionally warm water sitting below the surface of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is laying the foundation for a prolonged and potent El Niño in the second half of 2026. El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are above average for several consecutive months and there is an associated response in the overlying atmosphere. But while sea surface temperatures are a key metric used to define El Niño, what’s happening beneath the surface is also an important indicator for how El Niño will develop in the coming weeks and months. When unusually warm water sits below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, it typically rises towards the surface, which can help sustain or intensify El Niño. Warm pool sitting beneath tropical Pacific Ocean surface A pool of abnormally warm water is currently lying beneath the surface of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. In one region about 50 to 100 m below the equator in the eastern Pacific, the water is more than 8°C above average for this time of year. Image: Cross section of water temperature anomalies below the equator, with the Pacific Ocean sitting at the centre of the image between the two inner-most grey bars. The y-axis on the left shows depth in metres. Source: NOAA This slab of anomalously warm water below the surface is likely to cause El Niño to gain strength in the coming months. According to the latest modelling from the Bureau of Meteorology, sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to climb between July and October, before reaching a peak sometime between October and December. Based on this forecast, the current El Niño event will become very strong and will likely persist well into the first half of 2027. Image: Relative Nino3.4 forecast, showing El Niño likely to strengthen in the coming months. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. What does this mean for Australia's weather in the coming months? El Niño typically makes the following weather more likely in Australia: Reduced rainfall during winter and spring, particularly over the eastern half of Australia. Above average daytime temperatures in southern and southeastern Australia from winter to summer. Increased winter and early-spring frost risk in southeastern Australia due to clearer skies. Less snow, including a lower peak snow depth and shorter snow season. Delayed monsoon onset in northern Australia. Increased risk of fires. However, it is important to point out that no two El Niño events are the same and neither are their impacts.
07 Jul 2026, 2:43AM UTC
Why the mountains were warmer than parts of coastal Victoria last night
It was an upside-down night of weather in Victoria, with the mercury hovering well above zero overnight across the higher parts of Victoria’s alpine region, while numerous locations near the coast were slightly colder for most of the night. For example, at 4 am this Tuesday, July 7: The ski resorts of Mt Buller, Mt Hotham and Falls Creek were 4.8°C, 3.5°C and 4.0°C respectively. Locations only a few metres above sea level like Melbourne Airport, Geelong and the Melbourne CBD were 2.9°C, 2.9°C and 4.6°C respectively. That’s right: the Melbourne CBD was colder at 4am on Tuesday morning than Mt Buller, the nearest major ski resort to the Victorian capital. Why the unusual disparity? The answer is that there was a strong temperature inversion. What is a temperature inversion? Image: 24-hour observations for Mt Hotham (Vic) with the orange temperature line showing how the mercury stayed well above zero all night. Source: Weatherzone. We all know that the atmosphere becomes colder as altitude increases (until you hit the stratosphere). That’s why it’s usually colder in the mountains than lower down. But sometimes, the temperature profile temporarily flips, with relatively cooler air near ground level sitting beneath a layer of warmer air. That’s called a temperature inversion, and it’s what occurred in parts of Victoria overnight. How do temperature inversions happen? One of the most common ways for a temperature inversion to develop is by radiative cooling of the air near the ground. This typically happens on clear and calm nights, when the ground gets colder at night when heat radiates into space. Clear and calm nights typically occur near the centre of a strong high pressure system – and it’s no exaggeration to say that southeastern Australia has one of those in place at the moment. Indeed, the high with a central pressure of 1044.5 hPa centred over Tasmania on Monday set a new provisional high pressure record for the Australian region. Relatively mild easterly winds played a part in the mild overnight temperatures in the Victorian Alps last night too. The influence of that Tasman Sea air contributed to an unusually warm layer of air forming from around 1500-2500m above the surface. Image: 850 hPa temperature and wind for Victoria at 7 am (AEST) on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. As the image above shows, temperatures at the air pressure level of 850 hPa in the atmosphere (an elevation of about 1500 m) were virtually the same in the Melbourne area as in the mountains to the northeast of the city. Most nights (without an inversion in place), you’d see a stark contrast. If you look closely at the wind barbs, the "feathers" show the southeasterly wind flow that contributed to relatively warm air at higher elevations. Winds were light, which meant the air in in the atmosphere couldn’t "mix" and prevent an inversion from occurring. What effects do temperature inversions have on surface weather? Apart from making the surface cooler than the layer of air above it, temperature inversions can also cause valley fog – and that’s what happened in parts of Victoria last night as the valley air condensed to its dew point, forming fog. Image: From about Geelong west, the 9 am satellite image showed cloud, but around Port Phillip Bay and greater Melbourne, as well as in the high country valleys in the state’s northeast, it was fog. Source: Weatherzone. One unwanted effect of temperature inversions at this time of year is that they prevent snowmaking at the alpine resorts, with overnight temperatures remaining too warm up high. Indeed, the 6:15 am Mt Hotham snow report began by saying "This morning we have a temperature inversion with the current temp sitting at a balmy +4.2 degrees." With the snowpack still very light for this time of year in the Australian Alps, temperature inversions are far from ideal for resorts looking to bolster their natural snowpack with snowmaking. Please check the Weatherzone snow page for the latest forecasts, live cam images and more throughout the 2026 snow season.