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Rain over southern inland QLD, NSW and northern VIC as moist winds become unstable. Showery onshore winds along the eastern seaboard around a high. Showers for southern SA and western VIC in moist, unstable winds. The odd shower over WA's west. Dry elsewhere with high pressure.
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Today, 5:53AM UTC
Major Antarctic outbreak from this weekend
There are increasing signs that a prolonged cold snap is on its way to southeastern Australia from Antarctica later this week into next. The frigid air will be dragged from Antarctica by a cold front sweeping across the continent this weekend. A high-pressure system will quickly follow in the fronts path and remain over southern Australia until at least mid-next week, prolonging this cold outbreak. The image below shows the frigid airmass over southeastern Australia early next week, with the southerly winds transporting it north into Qld. Image: 850 hPa (around 1.5km above the surface) temperature and wind forecast at 10pm AEST on Monday, July 15 The combination of this high pressure system and a low in the Tasman Sea, will direct southerly winds across southeastern Australia. This will keep temperatures 2 to 4°C below average across several states and territories for several days from late this week into next week. These southerly winds will lead to wind chill, with temperatures feeling much colder than the actual temperature. The image below shows southerly wind gusts across southeastern Australia on Tuesday next week. Image: Instantaneous wind gust forecast at 4pm AEST on Tuesday, July 16, according to ECMWF As the week unfolds, we will update you with more details on the temperatures expected across southeastern Australia later this week into next.
Today, 1:18AM UTC
Heaviest July downpour in a century for outback town
Parts of outback SA, NSW and Queensland have received heavy rain over the weekend, with the town of Menindee in far western NSW recording its wettest July day in 138 years. Take a look at the map below, which shows rainfall accumulations in the 24 hours to 9 am Monday. It’s not often you see the highest concentration of green dots (falls of 25 to 49 mm) and orange dots (50 to 99 mm) so far from the coast. Source: BoM. The heavy soaking rain was caused by the interaction between a cut-off upper-level low pressure system and atmospheric moisture flowing from the east, which was given extra fuel by unusually warm sea temperatures. Some of the observations of note to 9 am Monday included: NSW Inkerman 62 mm: The weather station close to Broken Hill recorded the heaviest reading in the whole of NSW to 9 am Monday. Menindee 48 mm: As stated, this was the heaviest day of July rainfall in 138 years for the outback town with a population of just over 500 people, where the entire monthly average rainfall for July is 17.7 mm. Bourke 41.6 mm: This was the heaviest day of July rainfall in 36 years for the famous outback town on the Darling River, where the entire monthly average rainfall for July is just 14 mm. Wilcannia 41.2 mm: This was the heaviest day of July rainfall in 74 years for the Darling River town about four hours’ drive downstream of Bourke, where the entire monthly average rainfall for July is 18 mm. QLD Hungerford 54 mm: A weather station in the far SW corner of the state, recorded the state-high total to 9 am Monday. Cunnamulla 28 mm: It was the heaviest July fall for 18 years in the well-known outback outpost. South Australia saw generally lighter falls but several spots well north of Adelaide saw 10 mm or more. As you can see on the three-hour loop to 9 am Monday, the rain continues this morning in many of the areas mentioned, and especially in northwestern NSW around Bourke, although a general drying trend will commence from later today onwards.
07 Jul 2024, 2:13AM UTC
Trough and cold front cross western WA
A trough and cold front containing gusty winds and heavy showers is making its way through the west of the country this Sunday morning, with gale force winds affecting the southwestern WA coast and showers stretching right up to the Pilbara. A severe weather warning for damaging winds was in effect overnight but was cancelled in the early hours of the morning as winds began to ease. Gif: Himawari Satellite and radar for southwest WA on Sunday morning Some of the strongest winds we have seen from this front overnight include: 102km/h at Rottnest Island 96km/h at Cape Naturaliste 85km/h at Busselton Jetty 83km/h at Cape Leeuwin Rainfall associated with the system has been falling for most of the last 24 hours with accumulated falls generally higher in locations further north. Some of the highest 24-hour totals to 9am this morning are: 29mm at Kalbarri 22mm at Carnarvon Ap 21mm at Geraldton Ap 19mm at Badgingarra 16mm at Bunbury Image: Himawari Satellite, rain radar and lightning for Perth and surrounding areas on Sun 7th 9:30am WST Areas south of Perth have picked up 5-15mm, while Perth itself and surrounding areas had picked up single digit totals in the same period. In addition to the rain falling yesterday and before dawn this morning, pockets of heavy showers have worked their way through the southwest of the state, making it a soggy start for anyone who had plans for a Sunday breakfast. If you look closely at the above image, you’ll even see some lightning detected near Rockingham, meaning some people may have heard some rumbling to accompany the shower activity. The cold front is stretching out from a low pressure system in the Southern Ocean, more than 2000km south of Perth, however there isn’t much cold air to be seen behind it. Temperatures across the west coast are forecast to reach the high teens to low 20s as skies quickly clear and winds tend west-northwesterly. Low cloud further inland will be responsible for it being a few degrees cooler while Kalgoorlie is looking at a chillier maximum of 15°C as the front passes over the town today. Image: Forecast maximum temperatures for southern WA on Sunday 7th In the coming days, temperatures look to warm even further as winds tend northerly ahead of another trough and front. That system is expected to cross later on Tuesday, heralding a cooler spell that will last for the rest of the week.
Weather in Business
05 Jul 2024, 2:14AM UTC
Unusual wind direction to elevate wind power
After a lull in the winds this week, wind power is set to pick up from rock bottom as a rare easterly wind surge impacts Qld, NSW and SA. Wind power has been slack this week across the National Electricity Market (NEM) in response to a stubborn high-pressure system which has parked itself over the Bight. Image: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) at 10am on Friday, July 5 This high will continue to sit over the Bight and Tas, until it finally moves east into the Tasman Sea on Monday, July 8. The image below shows that we saw low wind power in the order of 30 to 60 GWh/day in response to this high earlier this week, but wind has picked up slightly to 100 GWh/day on Thursday, July 4. Image: Wind contribution to generation (GW) during the last 30 days leading up to Thursday, July 4. Source: OpenNEM Usually with high pressure sitting over the Bight, wind power should continue to be low into next week. However, the images below show a rare easterly wind surge elevating winds slightly across parts of Qld, NSW and SA from Friday and possibly Vic on Monday. Images: Instantaneous wind gust forecast between Friday, July 5 and Thursday, July 11 While it is common for easterly winds to move over Australia, it is the strength of the wind that is unusual. The strongest winds over southern Australia, typically originate from the north or south, while for the east coast, westerly winds are typically the strongest. These winds are normally associated with cold fronts sweeping over the country. This weekend we will see easterly winds strengthen as they feed into a cut of low over SA cradled by a high-pressure system in the Bight. The easterly wind surge will not match the strength of winds associated with cold fronts, so wind power will remain low to medium across Qld, NSW. In South Australia, wind speeds over the weekend should be strong, especially about the Flinders Ranges and western slopes from Saturday morning. As of 2:50pm Friday, there is a damaging wind warning out for these areas. Wind farms near Port Augusta could see winds reaching 90km/h from Saturday morning, with the potential for cut outs. The image below shows that the wind farm output across the NEM should increase ever so slightly in the coming days, compared to the very low winds we saw earlier this week. The image below shows that the wind farm output across the NEM should increase ever so slightly in the coming days, compared to the very low winds we saw earlier this week. Image: Weatherzone’s Opticast Wind Farm Output for the NEM from Friday, July 5 to Friday, July 12. The stronger easterly winds in these states, will also be accompanied by a thick northeasterly cloudband stretching from the Coral Sea down to SA. You can see in the image below that it has already begun thickening up and producing rainfall in these areas. Image: Himawari-9 satellite image at 11:50am AEST on Friday, July 5 This cloudband is likely to reduce solar output in these states between Friday and early next week. So, when is decent wind power coming? You can see in the image above wind power is forecast to increase above 150 GWh day later next week in the NEM, with strong cold front finally able to make its way across southern Australia. To find out more, please visit our contact page or email us at business@weatherzone.com.au.
01 Jul 2024, 2:25AM UTC
Low wind power week coinciding with high demand
A prolonged period of low wind will impact the National Electricity Market (NEM) this week, which is coinciding with bitterly cold weather driving up energy demand in the southeast. The weather systems appear to be stuck, with record challenging high-pressure expected to sit over Tas for an extended period. The images below show this stubborn high-pressure system sitting over Tas or the Bight for at least 6 to 7 days. Images: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) on Monday, July 1 (top), Wednesday, July 3 (middle) and Saturday, July 6 (bottom). This high-pressure system should prevent fronts or fierce winds from crossing southern Australia this week, bringing a prolonged period of light wind for the NEM. The impact of the high pressure is already being felt in the market, with wind power only contributing 656MW or 2.2% to generation at 10:30am Monday, July 1. Image: Wind power contribution to generation for 7 days leading up to Monday, July 1. Source: OpenNEM You can see in the image above that this lull in wind power comes after a windy week, which was caused by several cold fronts crossing the region. The light winds are set to continue for most of the week for the NEM, especially in the wind generation areas in Vic and Tas, which are closest to the central high pressure. Unfortunately, this will coincide with extremely cold nighttime temperatures across Vic and Tas, with Melbourne set to see a run of 5 to 6 mornings below 4°C from Tuesday night. Some good news is that for SA, Qld, NSW and the ACT wind generation areas, winds should pick up later in the week as a surge of easterly winds feeds into a cut off low in SA. Image: Instantaneous wind gusts at 1pm on Friday, July 5, according to ECMWF This is in response to a rare ‘northeast cloudband’ which should cause thick cloud to stretch from the Coral Sea down to SA later this week. The cloudband should reduce solar output across parts of QLD, NSW and SA and bring significant rain totals to these areas. Looking ahead, wind should remain light across Vic and Tas for at least the next 7 days. The models are suggesting that a strong cold front and decent wind could pass across southeastern Australia mid- next week. Weatherzone Business, a DTN company, supplies precise weather intelligence to over 75% of the National Energy Market (NEM) participants and is the trusted provider for Australia’s Market Operator. To find out more, please contact us at business@weatherzone.com.au.
