Australian Weather

Today, 2:14AM UTC

After a lull in the winds this week, wind power is set to pick up from rock bottom as a rare easterly wind surge impacts Qld, NSW and SA.  Wind power has been slack this week across the National Electricity Market (NEM) in response to a stubborn high-pressure system which has parked itself over the Bight.  Image: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) at 10am on Friday, July 5  This high will continue to sit over the Bight and Tas, until it finally moves east into the Tasman Sea on Monday, July 8.  The image below shows that we saw low wind power in the order of 30 to 60 GWh/day in response to this high earlier this week, but wind has picked up slightly to 100 GWh/day on Thursday, July 4.  Image: Wind contribution to generation (GW) during the last 30 days leading up to Thursday, July 4. Source: OpenNEM  Usually with high pressure sitting over the Bight, wind power should continue to be low into next week.  However, the images below show a rare easterly wind surge elevating winds slightly across parts of Qld, NSW and SA from Friday and possibly Vic on Monday.  Images: Instantaneous wind gust forecast between Friday, July 5 and Thursday, July 11  While it is common for easterly winds to move over Australia, it is the strength of the wind that is unusual. The strongest winds over southern Australia, typically originate from the north or south, while for the east coast, westerly winds are typically the strongest.   These winds are normally associated with cold fronts sweeping over the country. This weekend we will see easterly winds strengthen as they feed into a cut of low over SA cradled by a high-pressure system in the Bight.  The easterly wind surge will not match the strength of winds associated with cold fronts, so wind power will remain low to medium across Qld, NSW. In South Australia, wind speeds over the weekend should be strong, especially about the Flinders Ranges and western slopes from Saturday morning. As of 2:50pm Friday, there is a damaging wind warning out for these areas. Wind farms near Port Augusta could see winds reaching 90km/h from Saturday morning, with the potential for cut outs. The image below shows that the wind farm output across the NEM should increase ever so slightly in the coming days, compared to the very low winds we saw earlier this week.  The image below shows that the wind farm output across the NEM should increase ever so slightly in the coming days, compared to the very low winds we saw earlier this week.    Image: Weatherzone’s Opticast Wind Farm Output for the NEM from Friday, July 5 to Friday, July 12.  The stronger easterly winds in these states, will also be accompanied by a thick northeasterly cloudband stretching from the Coral Sea down to SA. You can see in the image below that it has already begun thickening up and producing rainfall in these areas.   Image: Himawari-9 satellite image at 11:50am AEST on Friday, July 5  This cloudband is likely to reduce solar output in these states between Friday and early next week.  So, when is decent wind power coming?  You can see in the image above wind power is forecast to increase above 150 MWh day later next week in the NEM, with strong cold front finally able to make its way across southern Australia.  To find out more, please visit our contact page or email us at business@weatherzone.com.au. 

01 Jul 2024, 2:25AM UTC

A prolonged period of low wind will impact the National Electricity Market (NEM) this week, which is coinciding with bitterly cold weather driving up energy demand in the southeast.  The weather systems appear to be stuck, with record challenging high-pressure expected to sit over Tas for an extended period.   The images below show this stubborn high-pressure system sitting over Tas or the Bight for at least 6 to 7 days.   Images: Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) on Monday, July 1 (top), Wednesday, July 3 (middle) and Saturday, July 6 (bottom).   This high-pressure system should prevent fronts or fierce winds from crossing southern Australia this week, bringing a prolonged period of light wind for the NEM.   The impact of the high pressure is already being felt in the market, with wind power only contributing 656MW or 2.2% to generation at 10:30am Monday, July 1.   Image: Wind power contribution to generation for 7 days leading up to Monday, July 1. Source: OpenNEM  You can see in the image above that this lull in wind power comes after a windy week, which was caused by several cold fronts crossing the region.  The light winds are set to continue for most of the week for the NEM, especially in the wind generation areas in Vic and Tas, which are closest to the central high pressure.   Unfortunately, this will coincide with extremely cold nighttime temperatures across Vic and Tas, with Melbourne set to see a run of 5 to 6 mornings below 4°C from Tuesday night.  Some good news is that for SA, Qld, NSW and the ACT wind generation areas, winds should pick up later in the week as a surge of easterly winds feeds into a cut off low in SA.  Image: Instantaneous wind gusts at 1pm on Friday, July 5, according to ECMWF  This is in response to a rare ‘northeast cloudband’ which should cause thick cloud to stretch from the Coral Sea down to SA later this week. The cloudband should reduce solar output across parts of QLD, NSW and SA and bring significant rain totals to these areas.  Looking ahead, wind should remain light across Vic and Tas for at least the next 7 days. The models are suggesting that a strong cold front and decent wind could pass across southeastern Australia mid- next week.   Weatherzone Business, a DTN company, supplies precise weather intelligence to over 75% of the National Energy Market (NEM) participants and is the trusted provider for Australia’s Market Operator. To find out more, please contact us at business@weatherzone.com.au.