Australian Weather

Today, 2:55AM UTC

Australia’s national bushfire outlook has been released for spring 2026, revealing that parts of seven states and territories will have an increased risk of bushfires in the next three months. Why spring is an active time of year for fires in Australia Spring is typically a time of year when northern Australia is in the peak of its fire season, while conditions are also becoming more conducive to fires in Australia’s central latitudes and in some parts of southern Australia. This southward progression of fire danger during spring occurs as temperatures rise across the country, while vegetation that dried out in winter and early spring increases fire fuel loads outside the tropics. Image: Peak fire seasons in Australia. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. What can we expect this spring? Spring 2026 will be influenced by a very strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean – a climate driver that typically promotes abnormally warm and dry weather over large areas of Australia during spring. Above average sea surface temperatures surrounding most of Australia will also influence rain and storm potential throughout the season. According to the Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services (AFAC), there will be an increased risk of bushfires in southeastern NSW, southeast Queensland, northeastern Tasmania, parts of WA, SA and Victoria, and large parts of the NT this spring. Image: Spring 2026 bushfire outlook. Red areas on the map have an increased risk of fires this spring, while the rest of the map has an average risk of fires for this time of year. Source: AFAC. Eastern and southeastern Australia A broad area of northeast NSW and southern Qld experienced a drier and warmer than average start to 2026. During the 7-month period from January to July, rainfall was in the lowest 10% of historical records for inland areas of southern Qld and northeast NSW. This caused a depletion in root-zone soil moisture, which has enhanced evaporation stress and contributed to increased curing (the drying out of vegetation) and fuel availability heading into the start of spring. Image: Observed rainfall deciles during the first seven months of 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. The last few months have also been abnormally dry in southeast NSW and parts of eastern Vic, resulting in very much below-average root zone soil moisture (lowest 10% of historical records). In addition to this dryness, temperatures were also above average across large areas of Australia in the last three months, with a broad area of southeastern Australia registering its warmest May-to-July period on record. Image: Mean temperature deciles for the three month period from May to July 2026. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, this spring is likely to be warmer and drier than average for parts of eastern and southeastern Australia, with ongoing root zone soil moisture deficiencies likely to persist across these regions. This outlook suggests that parts of eastern and southeastern Australia will experience ongoing drying of fuel loads in the coming months, which should be enhanced by above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall in some areas. The AFAC outlook highlights southern inland Qld, northern inland NSW, southeast NSW, parts of southern and eastern Vic and northeast Tas as areas that will have an increased risk of fires this spring. Central Australia A broad area of central Australia is forecast to have an increased risk of fires in the next few months, extending over parts of SA and up through the NT as far north as the Barkly and Gregory districts. In the north, this elevated fire risk is due to the Top End fire season likely extending longer than usual due to a delayed wet season onset. Further south, an abundance of drying vegetation following above-average rain earlier this year is expected to supply ample fuel for fires in the coming months. According to the AFAC, “fire activity is likely to contract southwards from November, with the Barkly and Tanami districts entering their peak fire danger period in October and November.” “Across Central Australia, above average temperatures and extensive long-unburnt fuels in the Simpson Desert region towards the NT, Queensland and SA borders are expected to support above average fire potential from September.” Image: Chance of exceeding median maximum temperature during October 2026, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Source: Weatherzone. Western Australia Pockets of WA are expected to have an increased risk of fires this spring, primarily due to above average fuel loads and dry soil conditions, combined with below-average spring rainfall predicted in the state’s southwest. In the state’s northwest, the Cape Range, Wooramel, Western Murchison, Geraldton Hills, and Yalgoo bioregions are highlighted as areas that could see enhanced fire activity due to increased fuel loads associated with growth caused by rain from recent ex-tropical cyclones. The southern Geraldton Sandplains, Swan Coastal Plain, Jarrah Forest, and Warren bioregions are also predicted to see above average fire potential in late-spring, with below-average rain expected to enhance soil moisture deficiencies towards the end of the season. Image: Chance of exceeding median rainfall during October 2026, according to the ECMWF SEAS5 model. Source: Weatherzone. What does ‘enhanced fire risk’ actually mean? It is important to point out that fires can occur in any part of Australia, even in areas that are not predicted to have an increased risk of fires this spring. The AFAC defines an increased risk of fire as: “The likelihood of an increased number of significant bushfires occurring in the outlook period compared to the average risk. Risk depends on factors including weather and climate, fuels, recent fire history, natural and human barriers, and the speed and effectiveness of fire suppression."

18 Aug 2026, 4:47AM UTC

A burst of wet and windy weather will sweep across Victoria on Wednesday, with damaging wind gusts possible in central parts of the state, including Melbourne. Northerly winds were already affecting Vic’s weather on Tuesday, carrying relatively warm late-winter air and showers across the state. While Melbourne’s average maximum temperature in August is about 15°C, the city’s thermometer reached 20°C shortly before 2 pm on Tuesday. This was Melbourne’s first 20°C day in about nine weeks. These northerly winds will strengthen on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a low pressure trough passes over the state from west to east. The passage of the trough will also cause showers to become more widespread across the state. How strong will the wind get? Northerly winds will strengthen over Vic during Tuesday night and on Wednesday morning. The strongest winds will occur over the state’s central ranges from early Wednesday, where gusts of around 90 km/h are possible. These damaging winds may also spread south into parts of Melbourne and the Mornington and Bellarine Peninsulas after sunrise. Image: Forecast wind gusts at 1pm AEST on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Wind will tend more northwesterly and ease during the afternoon once the trough has passed through. How much rain will Vic see from this system? Due to the northerly winds, most of the rain from this system will fall on and north of the ranges in Vic, with southern parts of the state being more shielded from the wet weather. Some areas in central and northwest Vic could see around 15–30 mm of rain falling during Tuesday and Wednesday combined. Parts of the state’s southwest could also see around 5–15 mm, while Melbourne should see less than 10 mm. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the 36 hours ending at 10 pm AEST on Wednesday, August 19, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. A severe weather warning has been issued for damaging winds in parts of central Vic on Wednesday. Check the latest warning for the most up-to-date information on this system.