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A low is moving west, taking the heaviest rain & storms from the NT to the Kimberley. Showers & storms are scattering across the tropics and the interior, heaviest in tropical east Qld as moisture feeds broad troughs. Showers and brisk westerly winds for Tas between fronts.
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Today, 10:28AM UTC
Thunderstorm outbreak to affect every Australian state later this week
Widespread rain and thunderstorms will develop across Australia in the coming days, possibly causing flooding in areas of the country that were baking in 50°C heat just last week. The water vapour satellite images below highlight copious moisture in the middle and upper atmosphere over northern and central Australia on Thursday. This tropical moisture will interact with a broad area of low pressure over Australia during the next few days, causing wet and stormy weather to extend further south and east across the country. Image: Enhanced water vapour satellite images captured on Thursday, February 5, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Storms in every state and territory Rain and thunderstorms are possible over part of every Australian state and territory between now and this Sunday and will likely remain widespread across the country throughout next week. This outbreak of storms is likely to feature severe thunderstorms and flooding in multiple states. The map below shows how much rain one computer model is predicting during the next seven days. Weekly rainfall accumulations could exceed 100 mm in parts of central and northern Australia, with some areas in the north possibly seeing several hundred millimetres. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the seven days ending on Thursday, February 12, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. From 50°C to flooding in central Australia One area that could see several days of heavy rain and storms in the coming week is the north of South Australia and the south of the Northern Territory. Remarkably, it has only been a matter of days since temperatures in this region reached around 50°C. Marree in SA, which registered a maximum temperature of 49.8°C on Thursday last week, could see 50 to 100 mm by the end of this week. This rain would be enough to cause flooding and may cut off some roads in central Australia. Some of this rain could also be falling straight into Lake Eyre and onto Uluru. Tropical cyclone potential in Western Australia Another area likely to see heavy rain and an increased risk of flooding over the coming week is northern WA, where a tropical low pressure system has potential to become a tropical cyclone. The low, which has already been causing heavy rain over parts of the NT and WA over the last few days, is expected to move off the Kimberley coast on Friday. Once offshore, the system is expected to intensify during the weekend as it tracks towards the west, roughly parallel to WA’s north coast. The Bureau of Meteorology currently gives this system a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone off the Pilbara coast on the weekend. This developing low pressure system is likely to cause areas of heavy rain over northern WA in the coming days, although where and how much rain falls will depend on the systems track and strength during the weekend and early next week. Anyone living in northern WA should keep a close eye on the latest tropical cyclone advisories and weather warnings from this weekend into next week.
03 Feb 2026, 11:39PM UTC
Extreme fire danger in four Australian states
Hot and windy conditions will cause Extreme fire danger in parts of Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and Western Australia on Wednesday, with total fire bans in place for some areas. Return of heat in southeastern Australia Despite a burst of cold weather in southeastern Australia at the start of this week, which saw sub-zero minimums in four states, temperatures are once again climbing under the influence of warm northwesterly winds. Temperatures are forecast to reach as high as 41°C in SA and 39°C in Vic on Wednesday afternoon, while across Bass Strait, the mercury is predicted to reach 30°C in parts of Tas. This warmth will combine with blustery winds to cause Extreme fire danger ratings in the following areas: Mount Lofty Ranges district in SA. This includes the Adelaide Hills. Wimmera, North Central and Central districts in Vic. This includes Melbourne and Geelong. Midlands and East Coast districts in Tas. Image: Forecast fire danger ratings and total fire bans for Wednesday, February 4, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. The heat affecting southeastern Australia on Wednesday won’t be as intense as the heatwave that baked the region in the final week of January. However, below average rainfall and above average temperatures last month have helped dry out vegetation, which increases the risk of fires becoming difficult to control this week. Last month was Victoria’s driest January since 2013 and its warmest January in seven years based on maximum temperatures. Fire danger will ease for much of SA, Tas and Vic from Thursday as temperatures become cooler. However, Extreme fire danger is forecast for Vic’s North East district on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Lingering heat and fire danger in the west WA is being affected by a Severe to Extreme heatwave this week, which is elevating fire danger ratings in some areas. Image: Heatwave severity forecast for the three days starting on Wednesday, February 4, 2026. Source: Weatherzone. Perth reached 41.9°C on Monday and temperatures in the Gascoyne and Pilbara hit 46 to 47°C on Monday and Tuesday. Maximums in the mid- to high-40s are likely in the Pilbara and Gascoyne between Wednesday and at least Friday, with Perth also continuing to see temperatures reaching the mid-30s for the remainder of this week. This warmth will contribute to High fire danger over much of WA for the rest of this week, while Extreme fire danger is forecast for the Swan Inland North district (northeast of Perth) on Wednesday. People in areas with elevated fire danger should stay informed and follow local emergency warnings. For more information on fires, visit the following state fire authority websites: Victoria - https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/ South Australia - https://www.cfs.sa.gov.au/ Tasmania - https://www.fire.tas.gov.au/ Western Australia - https://www.dfes.wa.gov.au/
03 Feb 2026, 1:17AM UTC
Southeastern Australia's driest January in 17 years
In news that won’t surprise residents of Melbourne, Adelaide or plenty of other places in Australia's most heavily populated corner, southeastern Australia just had its driest January since 2009. It was also the region's second-driest start to the year since 1965, with January rainfall down by 23.14mm on the long-term mean, when averaged across all official weather stations in the region. Image: January rainfall anomalies across southeastern Australia dating back to 1900. Source: BoM. How dry has it been? The chart below shows rainfall deciles across Australia for January 2026. As you can see, the largest area of red (denoting very much below average rainfall) is located in the southeast of the country. Image: Australian rainfall deciles in January, 2026. Source: BoM. The dry January came after much of the southeast also endured below-average December rainfall, making for significant rainfall deficiencies in the first two months of the 2025/26 summer. For example: Adelaide (SA) had just 2.8mm of rainfall in December (average 25.9mm) and absolutely no rain in January (average 29.1mm). Melbourne (VIC) had 27.8mm in December (average 58.4mm) and just 1.6mm in January (average 48.0mm). Wagga Wagga (southern NSW) had 24.8mm in December (average 46.4mm) and just 2.0mm in January (average 43.5mm). Launceston (northern TAS) had 17.4mm in December (average 47.3mm) and just 3.2mm in January (average 44.5mm). There were, of course, some areas, that had above-average or even exceptionally heavy January rainfall, such as the NSW South Coast and a small patch of the southwest Victorian coastline along the Great Ocean Road where cars were swept away in flash flooding on January 15. But the overall picture was dry, and the outlook remains that way for the immediate forecast period. Both Adelaide and Melbourne can expect no rainfall for the rest of this week, give or take the chance of a brief light shower in Melbourne. The short-term forecast is also dry for inland parts of the southeast, although there are signs of instability as the week progresses as tropical air pushes south. At this stage, the potential for rainfall associated with thunderstorms looks more likely for inland NSW than further south and west in SA and Vic.