Australian Weather

14 May 2026, 8:30PM UTC

This year’s Australian snow season could be influenced by a very strong El Niño, increasing the likelihood of below-average snow in the Australian Alps. The Pacific Ocean is currently in a neutral phase, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña are in place. However, an El Niño pattern is emerging, and forecast models predict that El Niño will become established this winter and may last through the second half of the year. Some forecast models, including the Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-S2 model, predict that the impending El Niño will become very strong, meaning sea surface temperature anomalies in the central tropical Pacific Ocean will reach more than 2°C above the long-term average. Some forecasters and researchers refer to a very strong El Niño as a ‘super’ El Niño, however this is not a term officially used by the Bureau of Meteorology. Image: Forecast relative sea surface temperature anomalies in the central tropical Pacific Ocean, in an area called the Nino3.4 region. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. While a stronger El Niño does not guarantee that it will have a strong influence on Australia’s weather, the most recent ‘super’ El Niño years have all had a similar effect on the Australian snow season – they usually cause less snow. How does a very strong El Niño affect the Australian snow season? The most recent very strong El Niño events occurred in 2015-16, 1997-98, 1982-83 and 1972-73. The three most recent of these events were associated with below-average snow in the Australian Alps during the year El Niño became established. According to snow depth data from Spencers Creek in NSW, which sits at about 1830 metres above sea level, the long-term average season peak snow depth is around 196 cm. During the last three very strong El Niño formation years, the peak snow depth only reached 91 to 150 cm. In 1972, the snow depth was slightly above average. Image: Season peak snow depths at Spencers Creek NSW, with very strong or ‘super’ El Niño years highlighted in red. Source: Weatherzone. The graph above shows that most, but not all, very strong El Niño years since 1954 have been associated with below average snow at Spencers Creek in NSW. This shows that while very strong El Niño years make below average peak snow depths more likely, the Australian Alps can still see good snow due to natural variability. El Niño makes snow less likely in Australia by reducing rainfall and cloud cover and increasing average maximum temperatures in the country's southeast, including the Alps. This influence is amplified when the El Niño coincides with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). On average, the season peak snow depth at Spencers Creek is about 35 cm lower during El Niño years. The two lowest years on record were also El Niño years – in 1982 and 2006 – despite 2006 only being a weak El Niño year. Climate change and Australian snow In addition to climate drivers like El Niño and the IOD, the background influence of climate change is also impacting Australia’s snow season. Since 1954, the peak snow depth at Spencers Creek has dropped by around 0.5 cm per year, or 5 cm per decade. However, there is a large amount of variability from year to year. The average dates of the season’s peak snow depth and last snowmelt have also moved slightly earlier in the season. What can we expect this season? This year’s Australian snow season is likely to be influenced by El Niño, possibly a very strong or ‘super’ El Niño. As of mid-May, this is currently unlikely to coincide with a positive IOD, although some forecast models do hint at the possibility of a positive IOD during winter or spring. The presence of El Niño and the background influence of climate change increase the likelihood that the Australian Alps will see a below average peak snow depth this season. However, it will only take a few decent snowfalls to offset the influence of El Niño, so even with an elevated chance of below average snow this season, it’s not guaranteed. In the near-term, weather models are not currently showing signs of any major snowfalls in the final two weeks of May. This means that winter, which begins on June 1, will most likely start without much natural snow on the ground in the Alps.

14 May 2026, 2:16AM UTC

Adelaide and large parts of South Australia look set for significant rainfall, as a moist feed of tropical air combines with a developing inland trough. Rain is expected to develop on Friday and continue on-and-off through the weekend in the Adelaide area, with storms possible on Saturday. This rain will be welcomed by locals even if it disrupts outdoor activities on the weekend, as Adelaide has been relatively dry to date in 2026. As the chart below shows, the first four months of 2026 were wetter than usual in most parts of SA – and even exceptionally wet at some locations by local standards. But the area around Adelaide – including the Fleurieu Peninsula, the Adelaide Hills, and the city itself – has somewhat missed out. Image: SA rainfall deciles from January to the end of April, 2026, with pale red areas indicating below-average rainfall. Source: BoM. If you expand the time frame from four months to four years, you can see a similar pattern in South Australia, with above-average rainfall in much of the state’s north, but below-average rainfall in most parts of the state’s south and southeast – Adelaide included. Image: SA rainfall deciles in the four years to the end of April, 2026, with the red areas indicating below-average rainfall. Source: BoM. How much rain could fall in Adelaide? Adelaide started 2026 with a completely dry January, and that dry city gauge was no localised anomaly. Even up on Mount Lofty in the Adelaide Hills – where the annual average rainfall of 973mm is 81% more than the city’s 537.6mm - just 1.8mm of rain fell in January. Since the end of January, Adelaide’s rainfall has been close to average, without any exceptionally wet spells – especially compared to other parts of the state. For example, the town of Yunta in SA’s North East Pastoral forecast district saw a record 222.6mm in March. But from this Friday to next Tuesday, Adelaide could potentially see its wettest spell of the year – with the likelihood of 15 to 15mm over the five-day period, although some models are predicting as much as 40mm. Rain from an unusual direction One aspect of the incoming weather system is that it will arrive from the north and northeast. As mentioned in our story earlier this week on the widespread rain set to affect several states, that’s virtually the opposite of the usual direction for significant Adelaide rain, especially with winter approaching. 'It's also a slow-moving system, with the trough and front sliding southeast rather than pushing east due to the blocking high over the Tasman,"Weatherzone meteorologist Jess Miskelly explains. "This means the system will be in the vicinity longer, hence able to cause more rain." Image: Hourly graphs for Adelaide, SA, on the Weatherzone app. The rain that falls in Adelaide and elsewhere in SA this week will obviously help top up water storages, and it could boost water levels in Lati Thanda-Lake Eyre, where there’s extensive water to a depth of as much as 2.2 metres, according to the Lake Eyre Yacht Club. Interestingly, there could even be a minor reverse effect in this system, where Lake Eyre and other normally dry SA salt lakes provide small additional amounts of moisture for the rain heading further south. Instead of being a net absorber of moisture, those areas will be giving back to the atmosphere, even if it's only a relatively small amount. But this rainband would still happen without the influence of the lakes.