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Showers & storms are occurring in WA's north & SE, SA's west & north, the NT's western Top End & QLD's NW & SE in troughs. Isolated showers are persisting on QLD's north coast & in VIC's south & TAS's west in onshore winds. Highs are keeping elsewhere dry ith gentle winds.
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Today, 1:13AM UTC
Drought gripping SA, Vic as failed 'wet season' draws to a close
Lacklustre rainfall over the past seven months has exacerbated drought conditions across large areas of SA and Vic, with Adelaide nearing the end of one of its driest ‘wet seasons’ on record. The agricultural areas in SA and Vic typically receive most of their annual rainfall during the cooler months of the year between April and October. This rain typically comes from cold fronts and low pressure systems that come barrelling out of the southern Indian Ocean before sweeping across Australia from west to east. These cold fronts and low pressure systems have been lacking in 2024, with abnormally high pressure being a dominant feature across southern Australia and the surrounding region over the past seven months. Image: Mean sea level pressure anomaly for the period from April 1 to October 27, 2024, showing abnormally high pressure near southern Australia. Source: NOAA This relentless high pressure anomaly near southern Australia has resulted in below average cool-season rainfall across large areas of SA, Vic and southern NSW. Many cropping regions in SA and Vic received less than 60% of their average rainfall between April and October in 2024. This translates to more than 150 mm of missing seasonal rainfall in parts of both states, including some areas in southern NSW. Image: Rainfall anomalies for the period from April 1 to October 29, 2024. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. The latest crop and pasture report issued by South Australia’s Department of Primary Industries and Regions predicts that the state’s grain production in 2024/25 will be 35% below average and the lowest in six years. Farmers aren’t the only ones feeling the absence of rainfall in the past seven months either. Adelaide only received 248 mm of rain between April 1 and October 30, which is about 110 mm below its long-term April-to-October average and its 6th lowest total on record for this period. Some of the abnormally dry areas in SA and Vic were also highlighted in Australia's latest seasonal bushfire outlook for their increased fire risk heading into summer. The outlook noted that “fire authorities are advising communities of the potential for an early start to the fire season in parts of SA and Victoria, and extending to Tasmania if warm and dry conditions continue to dry out fuels towards summer.” Looking ahead, there are no strong indications of above average rain or below average temperatures over southern Australia in November or December.
29 Oct 2024, 12:19AM UTC
Hot start to November looms for Australia
A large pool of hot air will spread across Australia in the opening week of November, giving many parts of the country an early taste of summer. A stubborn ridge of high pressure to the south of Australia has been allowing hot air to build over the country’s northwest in the final days of October. This weather pattern caused exceptionally high temperatures in WA’s Pilbara district last weekend. On Saturday, the temperature reached 45.3°C in Roebourne, which was the highest October temperature observed anywhere in Australia for 15 years. Port Hedland also reached 44.9°C on Saturday and 44.3°C on Sunday, which was 9-10°C above average for this time of year. The heat will continue to brew over northwestern Australia in the coming days before a cold front crossing southern Australia helps drag the hot air towards Australia’s southern states later this week. The maps below show the forecast daily maximum temperatures over the next 10 days, according to one computer model. Image: Forecast daily maximum temperatures between October 29 and November 7, 2024, according to the ECMWF-HRES model. The image above shows a tongue of heat spreading over SA on Saturday and into eastern Australia from Sunday. A second wave of heat is then expected to drift across central and southern Australia next week. The highest temperatures over the next 10 days are likely to occur in central and northwestern Australia, where some places could reach the mid-forties. Parts of NSW, Qld, SA, the NT and WA will exceed 40°C this week. The late-spring heat will also be felt in some of Australia’s state capital cities, particularly in the southern and eastern states. Perth is forecast to exceed 30°C between now and Thursday. Adelaide should reach the high twenties on Wednesday and may approach the mid-thirties this Saturday. Melbourne could have a couple of days in the high twenties or low thirties this weekend. Canberra should reach about 25 to 27°C between Tuesday and Thursday and could nudge 30°C this Sunday. Sydney’s will most likely venture into the high-twenties on Sunday and Monday, although its western suburbs could have a few days above 30°C over the next week, possibly even reaching the mid-thirties this Sunday. Hobart could hit the mid-twenties this Sunday. Brisbane should have a few days near or above 30°C this week and early next week. Darwin will see maximum temperatures around 33 to 36°C over the coming week. The impending heat is also likely to combine with strengthening winds to elevate fire danger ratings in parts of southern Australia, particularly in SA on Saturday and Vic on Sunday.
28 Oct 2024, 12:20AM UTC
Stormy Monday in Queensland, NSW
Thunderstorms will hit parts of Qld and NSW on Monday afternoon as a low pressure trough lingers over eastern Australia. Sunday night saw a flurry of thunderstorms develop along a 2000km corridor stretching from Qld’s northwest to southeast. These storms, which formed along the low pressure trough, produced more than 160,000 lightning strikes in the 24 hours ending at 9am AEST on Monday. They also dumped 70 mm of rain to the south of Taroom and 54 mm at Arcadia Valley. Image: Observed lightning pulses withing 800 km radius of Blackall, Qld in the 24 hours ending at 9am AEST on Monday, October 28, 2024. Storms will once again strike parts of eastern Australia on Monday afternoon and evening due to the presence of two low pressure troughs. One broad trough will trigger storms over northeast NSW and into southeast and central Qld. Another smaller trough could produce a few storms in central and southeast NSW, most likely along the state’s central ranges. Some of Monday’s storms could become severe in central and northeast NSW and central and southeast Qld. In central NSW, damaging winds and large hail are the most likely threat with any severe storms. For northeast NSW and Qld, heavy rain, damaging winds and large hail are all possible if storms turn severe. Calmer weather will return to most of NSW and Qld on Tuesday before another round of wet and stormy weather returns on Thursday. Check the latest severe thunderstorm warnings for up-to-date information if you are in NSW or Qld on Monday. Title image credit: iStock / Alan Davidson