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An unstable airmass is bringing cool winds and showers to WA's south. Showers along the NSW and Qld coasts with moist winds. The odd light shower over the NT's eastern Top End. Dry elsewhere with a high pressure ridge.
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Today, 2:04AM UTC
500km line of storms sweeping across the Goldfields,WA
Over 32 thousand lightning strikes hit the Kalgoorlie region on Sunday and Monday, with more rainfall to come at the end of this week for the state’s southwest. The image below shows a 500km line of thunderstorms stretching between Leinster and Salmon Gums on Monday morning as the sun rises. Image: Himawari-9 satellite images for the three hours leading up to 8:20am AWST on Monday, May 6. There have not been any huge rain totals recorded in the sparse gauges in the region, despite the storm activity. Unfortunately, Kalgoorlie has not recorded any rainfall as the rainfall observations became faulty just before the storm. While not much rain has been recorded from these storms yet, they have been particularly active with lightning. Weatherzone’s Total Lightning Network recorded just over 32 thousand lightning strikes in a day in the Kalgoorlie region. This rain and storm event is being caused by a low-pressure trough on the surface and an upper-level low pressure system. The image below shows the upper low-pressure system passing through southwest WA. Image: 500 hPa temperature and height at 2pm AWST on Monday, May 6, according to Access-G This low will weaken on Tuesday and continue moving east, moving into SA by mid-week, easing the rainfall and thunderstorms in the area from Tuesday. Looking ahead, another burst of wet weather is forecast from Friday into the weekend for the states southwest as surface low pressure system sweeps across the state. The map below shows the rainfall forecast for the next week by one computer model, showing the rainfall expected in the Kalgoorlie area at the beginning of the week and the wet end to the week in the state’s southwest. Images: Accumulated rainfall forecast for the week leading up to 8am AWST on Monday, May 13, according to Access-G (Top) and ECMWF (bottom) You can see there is still some uncertainty regarding where and how much rain will fall in the southwest at the end of the week. We will keep you updated.
Today, 1:28AM UTC
Rain every day this week in NSW
The NSW coast can expect another week of rain as eastern Australia remains stuck in a stagnant pattern of wet and stormy weather. A stubborn high pressure system centred to the south of Australia has been driving moisture-laden winds into eastern Australia over the past week. This wet weather pattern is expected to linger for at least another week, causing rain and thunderstorms to continue over already sodden parts of NSW. The map below shows how much rain fell over NSW during the seven days ending at 9am on Sunday, May 5. Image: Observed accumulated rain during the 7 days ending at 9am on May 5. Source, Bureau of Meteorology In addition to the rain shown above, heavy falls continued in parts of central eastern NSW on Sunday into Monday morning, with some places picking up more than 160 mm in 24 hours. This latest deluge has caused minor flooding to develop at Tuggerah Lake around Long Jetty. Some of the standout totals during the 24 hours to 9am on Monday included: 165 mm at Hamlyn Terrace 140 mm at Mardie Dam 130 mm at Erina Heights 80 mm at Belrose 67 mm at Ulladulla Sydney has already registered 124 mm of rain in the opening 6 days of May, which is more than the city’s long-term May average of 117 mm. Looking ahead, persistent onshore winds will continue to produce showers along the NSW coast every day this week. Rain and thunderstorms will also become heavier and more widespread over eastern Australia in the second half of the week under the influence an upper-level low. The maps below show how much rain one computer model is predicting on each day this week. Image: Forecast accumulated rainfall over the next seven days, according to the ECMWF-HRES model. The impending rain will be falling onto already saturated ground in some areas, which increases the likelihood of flooding in parts of NSW and southern Qld. Stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings for the most accurate information over the coming week.
05 May 2024, 4:40AM UTC
Intense Rainfall: Over 100mm in just 3 days over NSW
The advance of a trough across the north and center of the state spread clouds across the state and, together with humid onshore winds, intensified instability in eastern NSW, leading to intense rainfall. Image: Satellite and radar images on Sunday 5th at 11:20am AEST. Sydney Airport recorded 51.2mm in just 3 days and since the beginning of the month, it has already made (96.2mm) slightly above the May average (95.9mm). Other locations also experienced significant rainfall in the last 3 days: Jervis Bay Airfield: 177.2mm Kiama: 109.4mm Ulladulla: 105.4mm. The rain is not over yet. Over the next 24 hours, more water is expected to fall, especially in the eastern part of the state, including the Sydney area. The map below indicates areas in red where an accumulation of 60-80mm of rain is expected over the southeast until 10 am on Monday. Image: 24hour rainfall to 10am AEST on Monday 6th according with ECMWF. Southeasterly winds will continue to bring rain throughout the week, although not as intense or consistent as in recent days. By the end of the week, another trough is expected to cross the state, possibly spreading more significant rain across the north and east of NSW. Follow the Weatherzone homepage for more updates.
Weather in Business
23 Apr 2024, 12:07AM UTC
Wind returning to southeastern Australia
After a prolonged period of light winds, a surge of powerful winds and cool air will push through southeastern Australia during the next 48 hours. As we wrote about last week the National Electricity Market (NEM) saw very low wind power generation during the seven days leading up to Thursday, April 18, with the daily wind generation having been under 41 GWh/day for this period. Wind power has improved slightly during the past week, with wind power increasing for a few days over last weekend. The chart below shows that the winds across the NEM have already increased in response to a cold front approaching SA and Vic on Tuesday. The increase in wind power is associated with a cold front sweeping across southeastern Australia, after a stubborn high-pressure system forced many cold fronts south for over a week. The map below shows the cold front marching across the Bight, approaching SA on Tuesday morning. You can also see a broad area of speckled cloud in the Bight, which is a tell-tale sign that a large mass of cold polar air has broken away from the Antarctic region and is venturing into the relatively warm mid-latitudes. Image: Himawari-9 satellite image at 9:30am AEST on Tuesday, April 23. Northwesterly winds will continue to strengthen ahead of the cold front on Tuesday in SA and Vic before a strong southwesterly change hits Adelaide on Tuesday afternoon and Melbourne in the evening. The images below show the wind gust forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Image: Instantaneous wind gust forecast at 1pm AEST on Tuesday (top) (bottom)and Wednesday, April 23 and 24, according to ECMWF While most of this wind should hit the wind power ‘sweet spot’, cut outs could occur at southeastern Vic and southern NSW wind farms late Tuesday into Wednesday. Generally, cut outs occur when wind speeds exceed 90km/h (25 m/s), which is when the wind turbines are turned off to prevent damage. In the image above you can see the front and associated southerly change moving up the NSW coast on Wednesday, hitting Sydney on Wednesday afternoon. Winds will then become light later this week as another high-pressure system moves into the Bight. Cool change coming Ahead of this change, much of southeastern Australia has experienced pleasant autumnal weather, with Sydney’s temperature for the next two days reaching 27°C. However, there will be a large temperature contrast ahead and behind the cold front in the next few days. The image below shows forecast air temperatures around 1.5km above sea level on Wednesday morning, showing the cool airmass moving over parts of SA, VIC, Tas. Behind the cold front strong southwesterly winds will cause temperatures to plummet to around 2-3°C below average across southern Australia; Melbourne and Adelaide's temperature dropping to around 16-18°C for several days following the front. Hobart’s temperature will drop from 22°C on Tuesday to 15°C on Wednesday. Sydney’s temperature will go from 5°C above average on Wednesday to average on Thursday. The coolest air will move over Tas, bringing snow to the alpine region there. Looking ahead, temperatures will recover later this week ahead of another cold front and burst of wind power early next week.
18 Apr 2024, 3:20AM UTC
Generation gone with the wind
A weeklong stretch of low wind power was broken on Wednesday evening, as a weak cold front marched across southern Australia. The chart below shows that the National Electricity Market (NEM) has endured a weeklong stretch of low wind generation, with wind power providing around 6% of the NEM’s electricity, down from last year’s average of 13.1% (Mon, April 15 to Wed, April 17). The daily wind generation has been under 41 GWh/day for the last seven days leading up to Thursday, April 18. The calmest winds occurred on Sunday, April 14 with only 24 GWh/day produced or 4.6% of grid demand. To put this in perspective, the average daily wind generation during the last year up to Wednesday, April 17, 2024, was 71 GWh/day, according to data from the open NEM. This prolonged period of low wind was caused by blocking high pressure systems sitting over southern Australia, forcing cold fronts or strong wind further south. The image below shows the Mean Sea Level Pressure chart on the calmest day, Sunday, April 14, with high pressure stubbornly sitting over the southern half of the country. Image: Mean Sea Level Pressure Analysis at 4am AEST on Sunday, April 14. Source: Bureau of Meteorology. As we mentioned earlier today, a positive Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has led to consistent high pressure systems positioned over latitudes well south of Australia during the first three months of the year and during this week. This has kept cold fronts south of the mainland, and even south of Tasmania. READ MORE: WHAT IS THE SAM? The period of light winds ended abruptly on Wednesday evening, with WattClarity reporting that wind production peaking above 3,000 MW at 9:10pm AEST. The increased wind power on Wednesday night, was caused by a couple of factors; A weak cold front swept across the southeast on Wednesday, bringing stronger winds. A very shallow temperature inversion formed in the early evening protecting the surface from the stronger winds, but the wind turbine hub-height (150 metres above the ground) winds remained strong at around 28-38 km/h in SA. Temperature inversions form at night when the ground cools quicker than the air above it, meaning that the temperature increases with height for a thin layer of the atmosphere. During autumn, the temperature inversions are commonly shallow meaning that while the wind could be weak at the surface, the hub heights could continue to experience strong winds. A similar phenomenon could happen again tonight across southern Australia, with another cold front passing across the south. Looking ahead, light winds are expected to continue from Friday as a stubborn high-pressure system builds over the Bight until early to mid-next week.
