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A broad area of moisture and instability is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms over WA's north & west, the NT, SA's north & east, QLD, NSW, the ACT & eastern VIC, most intense in NSW & QLD, with lighter showers over TAS. High pressure is keeping much of WA and SA dry.
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Today, 1:29AM UTC
Another burst of heat on the horizon for southeastern Australia
The first week of summer is set to arrive with a bang, with hot and humid conditions expected for at least five states and territories next week. A blocking high pressure system in the Tasman Sea will direct hot northerly winds across southeastern Australia for much of next week. This slow pattern will allow heat to build over the region for several days with heatwave conditions forecast for parts of SA, Vic, Tas, the ACT, NSW and Qld from Monday, December 2. Severe heatwave conditions are again forecast for parts of NSW next week, with temperatures forecast to soar across the state. Image: Heatwave severity forecast for the three days beginning on Monday, December 2. Source: BOM There are early signs that western Sydney could endure temperatures in the 30s for the first week of summer, meanwhile the east is forecast to see temperatures remaining in the high 20s to low 30s. Adelaide and Melbourne both will reach the low 30s on Monday, December 2, with Melbourne possibly seeing a second day of low 30s on Tuesday before a cold front and northwest cloud band cool the region down. This change will be relatively shallow, and temperatures will bounce back quickly mid to late next week. The second round of heat will pack a punch, with temperatures soaring into the 40s across parts of SA on Thursday and Friday. Image: Maximum temperature forecast for Thursday, December 3, according to ECMWF At this stage Adelaide is forecast to reach 37°C on Thursday, with Melbourne forecast to top at 32°C. Image: 28-day temperature calendar on the Weatherzone app for Adelaide, SA. Forecasts may change - be sure to check for your area. Tropical moisture will also feed into southeastern Australia next week, bringing uncomfortably humid conditions to the region along with the heat. The sticky conditions could make the temperature feel 3 to 5 degrees hotter than the actual temperature. The hot and humid conditions will be combined with uncomfortably warm nights across southeastern Australia as tropical moisture feeds into the region. Sydney will fail to see temperatures drop below 20°C in the next week, while Brisbane’s minimum is forecast to be around 22 to 23°C. The warm nights will make it hard for people to sleep and recover from the days’ oppressive heat, so be sure to keep cool.
Today, 1:05AM UTC
Stormy start to summer looms for Australia
A volatile weather pattern is set to cause widespread thunderstorm activity over Australia throughout the first week of summer, with severe storms likely to hit multiple states and territories. The last week of spring is featuring prolific rain and thunderstorm activity over large areas of northern and eastern Australia. This wet and stormy weather will continue on Friday and Saturday, the last two days of spring, with areas of heavy rain expected over parts of the NT, Queensland, NSW, Victoria, Tasmania and the ACT. Image: Forecast accumulated rain during the last two days of spring, according to the ECMWF-HRES model. This end-of-spring soaking will be followed by a new storm-producing weather pattern in the opening days of summer. An array of surface-based low pressure troughs interacting with a series of upper-level troughs will produce daily showers and thunderstorms over Australia from this Sunday throughout next week. This stormy start to summer will be enhanced by above average sea surface temperatures to the northwest and southeast of Australia, which will supply ample moisture for storms due to enhanced evaporation. Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies on November 27. Source: Bureau of Meteorology Rain and storms are likely to develop over part of every Australian state and territory in the first week of summer, with some states to see storms on each of the first seven days of the season. There is a good chance that some of the impending storms will become severe, produce heavy rain, large hail or damaging winds. It’s also worth pointing out that even if a storm does not meet the criteria to be classified as severe, all thunderstorms produce lightning, which can be dangerous if you are outside during the storm. Image: Lightning status on the Weatherzone app for Thredbo, NSW at 12:20pm on Nov 29, 2024. Be sure to check the latest forecasts and warnings in your area for the most up-to-date information during the next two days and throughout the first week of summer. Title image credit: iStock / mdesigner125
28 Nov 2024, 10:13AM UTC
Tropical Cyclone Robyn forms in Australian region
Tropical Cyclone Robyn has formed inside Australia’s area of responsibility, becoming the first named cyclone of the 2024-25 season. Robyn became a category one tropical cyclone over the eastern Indian Ocean on Thursday afternoon, forming roughly 740 km to the west southwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands at about 2pm AWST. Image: Visible satellite images showing Tropical Cyclone Robyn to the northwest of Australia on Thursday afternoon. Having developed inside the northwest corner of Australia’s area of responsibility for tropical cyclone monitoring, the system was named by the Bureau of Meteorology. This is the first named tropical cyclone of Australia’s 2024-25 season, which runs form November until April. Tropical Cyclone Robyn is expected to move towards the south on Friday before turning towards the west and weakening from this weekend. On this track, Robyn poses no direct threat to the Australian mainland or the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. Image: Tropical Cyclone Robyn on Thursday. Robyn’s development on Thursday coincides with an active pulse of the Madden-Julien Oscillation (MJO) passing to the northwest of Australia. This coincidence is unsurprising because the MJO passing near Australia typically increases the likelihood of rain, thunderstorms and tropical cyclones in the Australian region. In an average tropical cyclone season, we typically see around 9 to 11 tropical cyclones inside Austarlia’s area of responsibility.