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Showers & thunderstorms are scattering across WA's east & north, the NT Top End & QLD's northwest & east as moist winds feed troughs. Very warm winds are affecting the interior & are developing in SA. A high is keeping the country's centre & southeast largely dry.
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20 Nov 2024, 11:49PM UTC
Pre-summer heatwave hitting southeastern Australia
A burst of heat will sweep across Australia’s southeastern states during the next six days, causing temperatures to soar in Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Canberra and Hobart. Northerly winds developing ahead of a broad low pressure trough will carry a hot air mass towards southern and southeastern Australia in the coming days. Image: Forecast 850 hPa temperature and wind at 5pm AEDT on Friday, showing northerly winds dragging hot air towards southern and southeastern Australia. This pulse of heat will first hit SA from Thursday, before spreading further east on Friday and Saturday. In SA, Adelaide’s temperature will reach the low to mid-30s for three consecutive days starting on Thursday, possibly peaking around 37°C on Friday. The city’s minimum temperatures will also stay up around 23°C on Friday and Saturday mornings, making it more difficult for buildings and their occupants to cool off overnight. Image: Temperature forecast graph on the Weatherzone app for Adelaide, SA. Temperatures in SA will get even higher outside Adelaide in the coming days, likely nudging 40°C in some parts of the state’s west and north. This heat will contribute to extreme fire danger ratings in the state’s West Coast and Eyre Peninsula on Friday. Temperatures will also start to rise noticeably in parts of Vic, Tas, the ACT and NSW on Thursday before even hotter air arrives from Friday and Saturday. Image: Forecast maximum temperatures on Friday, November 22, according to the ECMWF-HRES model. Melbourne will get close to 30°C on Thursday before enduring two days in the mid-thirties on Friday and Saturday. A minimum temperature around 22°C on Friday night/Saturday morning will also make for a restless night for those without access to air conditioning. Temperatures in northwest Vic are likely to reach about 37 to 38°C when the heatwave peaks on Friday and Saturday. Hobart’s exposure to this week’s heat will be brief and less intense, with the city expected to reach the low-twenties on Friday and around 28°C on Saturday. Image: Heatwave severity forecast for the three days starting on Thursday, November 21. Canberra could see four days at or above 30°C from Friday to Monday, peaking at about 34°C on Sunday. Sydney will gradually warm over the next five days and nights, with maximum temperatures in the city going from the mid-twenties on Thursday, to the high-twenties on the weekend, and around 30°C on Monday and Tuesday. Sydney’s western suburbs will be even hotter than the city during this heatwave, with Penrith predicted to reach about 39°C on Monday. High dew point temperatures will elevate humidity in Sydney's eastern suburbs, particularly on Monday and Tuesday, making it feel a few degrees warmer than it actually is. Warm nights will also make it harder to cool down between the summer-like days, particularly on Monday night/Tuesday morning when the city’s temperature could stay above 20°C. Image: Heatwave severity forecast for the three days starting on Sunday, November 24. This heatwave is not expected to be record-breaking and hot weather is not unusual at this time of year. It is a reminder that summer is almost here for Australia and some forecast models are showing early signs that a more intense heatwave could be on the cards for parts of Australia in the opening week of December. We will continue to monitor this upcoming early-summer heatwave and give updates in the Weatherzone News feed.
20 Nov 2024, 2:16AM UTC
Heavy rain to soak Queensland's central coast on Thursday
A brief burst of heavy rain is likely to cause flash flooding along Queensland’s central coast and adjacent inland on Thursday. A coastal trough being fed by a deep layer of moisture-laden winds coming off the Coral Sea will cause heavy rain over Qld’s central coast and adjacent inland on Wednesday night into Thursday. There also signs that a small low pressure system could form near the coast, which would further enhance rainfall in the region if it forms. The rain from this system is expected to be brief but intense, likely brining 100 to 200 mm between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday night, with isolated falls possibly exceeding 300 mm. If this much rain does fall, it would easily be enough to cause localised flash flooding. Image: Forecast accumulated rain over central Qld during the 48 hours ending at 10pm AEST on Thursday, November 21, 2024. It's worth pointing out that there is some uncertainty regarding this event. It’s clear that a period of heavy rain will develop during Wednesday night and on Thursday. However, it’s uncertain exactly where and how much rain will fall, so be sure to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings during the next 48 hours. In addition to the rain that’s about to soak Qld’s central coast, areas of rain and thunderstorms will also impact other parts of the state on Wednesday and Thursday. Image: Forecast accumulated rain over Qld during the 48 hours ending at 10pm AEST on Thursday, November 21, 2024. This wet and stormy weather is being fuelled by persistent moisture-laden air coming from the Coral Sea, where sea surface temperatures in some areas are running around 1°C warmer than average for this time of year. This extra warmth is enhancing evaporation and pumping more moisture into the atmosphere. Image: Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Coral Sea on November 17, 2024. Source: Bureau of Meteorology Rain should ease over central Qld on Friday, although showers and some thunderstorms will continue over the state’s north and east into the weekend. Headline image credit: iStock / Smyk_
20 Nov 2024, 12:18AM UTC
Storm-producing juggernaut drenching the west
If you asked a young child to colour-in a map of Western Australia with crayons, you might get something that looks a lot like the three-day projected rainfall map for this week. Rain, and plenty of it, is set to soak virtually the entire state. And while some places will inevitably only see a few drops or miss out entirely, plenty of areas will see good falls. Image: Three-day accumulated rainfall totals in WA to 8pm Friday, November 22, according to the ECMWF model. That includes arid areas in the centre and east of the state which are dry at the best of times, and southern areas where rainfall tends to dry up at this time of year. This event has already well and truly kicked off, with solid falls recorded on Tuesday into Wednesday morning across the Kimberley, Gascoyne, Pilbara, Goldfields, Central West, Lower West, South West, Great Southern and Central Wheat Belt forecast districts. Some of the rain has fallen briefly in heavy bursts during storms, while in some places it has accumulated steadily. Totals of note from 9 am Tuesday to 7:30 am Wednesday (AWST) include: 50mm or more at multiple locations in the South West forecast district, including Shannon and Bridgetown. 40mm at Golden Grove, a copper, lead, silver, zinc and gold mine in arid country about 250km east of Geraldton in the Gascoyne forecast district. 29.4mm at Kalgoorlie, the heaviest day of November rainfall in five years for WA's largest inland city. 28.2mm at Morawa Airport in the Central West, and bear in mind that the site’s average rainfall for the whole of November is just 10.6mm. 18.4mm at Dalwallinu in the Central Wheatbelt, where the average for the whole of November is just 13.4mm. 17.2mm at Marble Bar, the heaviest daily fall since June this year. Image: The 7am combined radar and satellite image revealed cloud over a broad area of WA with rain and storms heaviest over inland parts of the state’s western half. As the image above shows, there's cloud but not much rain on the Perth radar this morning, although 3.8mm did accumulate in the city’s main gauge from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with slightly higher totals in many suburbs. While Perth daily totals will likely remain below 10mm this week before the weather clears in time for the first cricket Test between Australia and India starting on Friday, there's plenty of potential for further solid falls elsewhere in WA. What's causing this rain? The broad low pressure trough which is currently causing the rain and storms will be bolstered by an upper-level trough passing over the state during the next few days. The arrival of that upper trough will destabilise the atmosphere and cause the surface trough (and associated rain and storms) to spread east – hence the coloured-in effect across the state on the map at the top of this story. We’ll keep you posted on notable rainfall totals in Western Australia in coming days.