Record Queensland drought could get worse with El Nino
Rob Sharpe
Drought has been declared in more than 80 per cent of Queensland, with fears El Nino will only make things worse.
Queensland is experiencing its most widespread drought conditions on record, with 80.35% of the state drought-declared. During the past six months western and northern Queensland has generally seen below average rainfall. In the southeastern districts rainfall has actually been above average in some parts. However, the reason for drought declaration of so much of Queensland is that widespread healthy falls haven't been experienced since the back-to-back La Nina events finished in early 2012.
On Tuesday the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) officially declared that we are in an El Nino event. During El Nino events there is a higher tendency towards significantly below average rainfall in eastern Australia during winter and spring. However, this doesn't guarantee below average conditions or rule out good rain in Queensland, particularly during summer as El Nino's impacts taper off.
To put the risks in perspective Andrew Watkins from the BOM said that during the past 26 El Nino events, 17 have resulted in widespread Australian drought.
Thankfully El Nino is not the only climate driver to affect Queensland weather in the coming months. During June and July there is actually a higher than usual chance of above average rain in southwestern Queensland. This is due to the presence of warmer than usual waters in the Indian Ocean off the Western Australian coastline. Northwest cloudbands drawing upon this moisture are likely to be more frequent in the coming months and could bring some decent rain.
Therefore, with drought in place and El Nino on the way it is likely to be a very hard season for Queenslanders, but hopefully enough rain will fall in coming months to get us through to the next wet season.
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